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Gold's Bounce Could Extend but Is Likely to Be a One-Off


Targets and turning points for major commodities including cash and crude.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold jumped on fundamentals from India. But a lot of buying pressure was expended while fulfilling its bounce target. Other metals did not participate in the rally.

Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's drop back to 79.85 held Wednesday's lows as support. The rally would resume above 80.05, preferably without first dipping further down to 79.60-79.70.

Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Monday ultimately (bounced, almost filling the gap back to Wednesday's 1.3145 close. Back under 1.3115 would suggest the downleg had resumed.

Jun Contract GC; (GLD)
The 1640.50 bounce target was probed by $8 Sunday night. Its reaction held 1637.00 before recovering back to 1650.00. Then 1637.00 held another test. Almost any further break under 1637.00 would resume the decline. Otherwise, the bounce could extend next up to 1657.00-1661.00.

May Contract SI; (SLV)
The 32.05 bounce limit was tested Sunday night. A drop from to 31.31 managed to close back above 31.45 to avoid signaling the decline had resumed. Closing above 31.75 would target 32.30, but there is no other bullish pattern.

30-year Treasury
Jun Contract US; (TLT)
A dip pierced 137-28 by 2 only ticks before Friday's Employment Situation report. Its reaction spiked up two points, and eventually three, touching 140-26 intraday Monday. This probe into 140-22/140-29 resistance held through the close. A pullback has room down to 137-16/137-26 before signaling that momentum is reversing back down.

Crude Oil
May Contract CL; (USO)
The bounce did not extend higher than, let alone to, 104.70, which was put into play just for having recovered 102.25. Fresh lows Monday tested 100.81, but then recovered to close back above 102.25. Now the gap back up to Friday's 103.25 close should attract price up to 104.70.

Natural Gas
May Contract NG; (UNG)
A new low Sunday night under 2.08 down to 2.06 wasn't repeated intraday Monday. Neither was it rejected, still requiring a close above 2.13 to target at least 2.31. But now an intraday test of 2.06 would help to assure that no unfinished business below remained outstanding.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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