Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Euro Members Picking Out Their 'Going-to-Meeting' Hats

By

As if we didn't have enough on our plate, the market has not yet found time to worry about the Turkey and Syria imbroglio, the economy in Cyprus, and France's credit markets.

PrintPRINT
MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL All eyes will be on the Justus Lipsius Building in Brussels June 28 and 29 to see if the Euro leaders can stabilize the region's finances (read: Germany bails everyone out) and then lay out the future path of the eurozone (read: Germany rules all things budgetary for everyone, forever). So why all the shake, rattle, and rolling 2% daily drops in the Dow (^DJI), S&P (SPY), Nasdaq (^IXIC), DAX (^GDAXI), CAC (^FCHI), and Hang Seng (^HSI)? The answer: Why not?

As if we didn't have enough on our plate, the market has yet to find the time to worry about the serious Turkey/Syria imbroglio, Cyprus publicly turning its pockets inside out, and the fact that France may be the next major country to see the credit markets turn up the heat.

Bottom line, things are acting pretty quantum-like. Day to day various parts of the markets fall and rise with little regard to anything fundamentally measurable or repeatable. One day gold and silver catch a bid, the next day they are tossed away like leftover soy sauce packets.

Here's to hoping that the Euro Summit saves the world because if we come away with just another group photo of grinning, well-fed, thumbs-up politicians, then we're all in for one uncomfortable weekend.

This week's Wall of Worry moves up a notch to 29 blocks. Scroll down for a text-only version of this column and an explanation of how it works, or click on the graphic below for an interactive version of the Wall.



Lloyd's Wall of Worry

QE:
We're gonna get it, but with a hitch. First we have to experience market hell, global economic breakdown, and near-systemic social collapse. Oh yeah, we're gonna get it.

US ECONOMY: Don't panic but the industrial production number just went negative. On second thought, panic a little.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Good news in the US as manufacturing jobs are coming back to the heartland. Opposite of good news for the rest of the world as they bid these shifts goodbye.

INVESTOR SENTIMENT: Aah, nothing a good night's sleep won't fix.

HOUSING CRISIS: Signs of life emerging in the US --- Frankensteinian, bolt-necked, and stiffed-legged as it may be.

CENTRAL BANKS: Spoiler alert! They are freaked.

EUROPEAN ECONOMY: You know things are bad when the citizenry is publicly wailing about the sorry state of the normally robust black market.

THE EUROPEAN UNION: The big two-day soiree June 28 and 29 will decide the future of the euro… or at a minimum, the date for the next two-day meeting.

SOVEREIGN DEBT: Channeling F.D.R.: "Never before have we had so little time in which to do so much." Striking how much one Depression looks like another.

SPAIN: "For $125 billion today, I will gladly pay you back on miércoles."

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS: You couldn't give them away at 15+% in the early 1980s, and in the 2010s, you can't keep the shelves stocked for more than a day. How's that efficient market theory thing working for you right now?

EGYPT: New ruling party? As if we weren't confused enough about this country already.

VOLATILITY: "Ladies and gentlemen, please brace for impact."

HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING:
Lloyd: How'd the speed dating go?
HAL: I won.
Lloyd: It's not a contest.
HAL: Now you tell me.

CHINA:
Residential housing market drooping as China's "imitation is the highest form of flattery" strategy, re: the US and Europe, takes a seriously mistaken tact.

STOCK MARKET TECHNICALS: As they say, "in a trading range." Or as they say in the vernacular, "in a trading range from hell."

GERMANY: "Hmm, do I want the Danish or the cheesecake, the Danish or the cheesecake, Danish, cheesecake, Danish, cheesecake…?" "Just make a decision already!!!" The similarities between going for dinner at Miami's Rascal House with my grandparents and watching Germany figure out what to do with the euro really blows my mind.

GLOBAL ECONOMY: "Iceberg dead ahead!"

INDIA: The rupee is dropping faster than those ski jumpers coming off that long runway jump, like the one at the beginning of "The Wide World of Sports" in the 1970s. "Spanning the globe...."

TOO BIG TO FAIL BANKS (TBTF): Start making your "Too Big To Fail Bank" lists now, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, France.…

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The average cost per vote in 2008 was about $8.50. This time around I ain't puttin' on my fuzzy slippers for less than a sawbuck ($10). I mean, a man's got his self-respect to think of, don't he?

CREDIT MARKETS: The vigilantes are back and they brought a hefty picnic basket of inedible 7+%-yielding Spanish 10-year bonds. Buen apetito!

BANK RUNS: Europe's "What, me worry?" attitude regarding the current bank runs will work until the bank runs start happening in France and Germany. At that point, we all worry.

THE CLIFF: Scary when our best hope for positive news flow stems from potential action from the US Congress. Did I really just write that?

GREECE: Here's a real shocker -- there is no Greek god of money.

PMIs:
The favorite economic indicator du jour. And du jour, they stink.

EURO CURRENCY: Holding up in a state of suspended animation…unless Germany leaves the euro that is, then... look out below!!!

ECB: Have they suddenly gone radio silent or have the thousand or so news sources that bombard me daily just decided that this does not meet their Kardashian-level "breaking news" hurdle?

SCOTUS: Get ready to turn your head and cough as the US Supreme Court decides on the constitutional health of the Individual Mandate on Thursday.


What Is Lloyd's Wall of Worry?
by Lloyd Khaner

Welcome to my at-a-glance guide to the issues facing investors this week -- a unique tool for traders and money managers.

Typically the term "wall of worry" refers to the entire body of concerns influencing stock market action. When the wall is high, meaning the market is nervous, stocks tend to get cheaper.

This wall of worry is even more specific. Every week I list the exact concerns in the marketplace and use the list to help me make buying and selling decisions. As I like to say, "Buy fear, sell cheer."

In other words, once the the wall rises above 15 blocks, start looking for deals. If the worry count sinks below 10, consider selling; prices have likely peaked.

< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Positions in SPY, DIA, GLD, QQQ
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
PrintPRINT

Busy? Subscribe to our free newsletter!

Submit
 

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE