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The 2013 Kentucky Derby Darkhorse

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There are opportunities to back contenders of unknown quality, horses for which you have some hope of using your skills to find a positive edge.

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The first Saturday in May is less than two weeks away so it's time for the casual horse racing fan to consider which three-year-old will win the Kentucky Derby (NASDAQ:CHDN) in Louisville. It is certainly possible to enjoy the Derby for the sport and the beauty alone, without bourbon (See also: The Whiskey Breath of Wall Street: What the Invention of Bourbon Has to Do With Credit Derivatives) or betting, but who would want to?

As I discussed last year, most Derby horses are known quantities. The expert handicappers and insiders make it very difficult for a casual amateur to find a bet with a positive expected value. This is not the case for lesser horseraces, for which careful data analysis turns up many profitable strategies, even without the benefit of expert or inside knowledge. But that's work, and Derby Day is for fun. The best hope for the non-professional, non-expert, or non-insider is to find a darkhorse, a horse going off at long odds (that is, a horse deemed to have a small probability of winning that will pay its backers a large multiple of their stakes in the unlikely event that it crosses the finish line first), not because everyone knows of reasons it will not win, but because no one knows of reasons that it might win.

This year, the Derby changed the selection rules to make it harder to find darkhorses. The old rules ranked horses based on the amount of money won in "graded" races (that is, races of sufficiently high quality). But grade 3 (lowest quality) counted the same as grade 1 (highest quality), and money won in seven months before the Derby counted the same as money won in the weeks leading up to the race. Because Derby runners are so young, that seven months can make a huge difference. Therefore, every year there were horses running in the Derby that had not faced Derby-quality competition, nor had received significant handicapper attention, nor had run major races at distances relevant to the Derby, nor had significant recent performances to judge.

Under the new rules, horses get points from finishing fourth or better in 36 designated races. That eliminated about 150 lesser races from consideration, forcing Derby contenders to prove their mettle in the biggest races against other Derby hopefuls. Many shorter-distance races were removed from consideration as well. 86% of the points are awarded in the ten weeks leading up to the big race and 56% are awarded in the last five weeks. Handicappers can concentrate attention on these races so they get high-quality, up-to-date observations of Derby candidates in direct contention with each other.

But all is not lost for the darkhorse fancier; there are still opportunities to back contenders of unknown quality, horses for which you have some hope of using your skills to find a positive edge. I started out by computing the record of all Derby contenders against other Derby contenders in Derby-eligible races (only one of the 36 qualifying races has yet to be run, The Derby Trial on April 27).

Current betting favorite Verranzano has beaten four probable Derby runners (Falling Sky, Java's War, Normandy Invasion, and Vyjack) and lost to none. Revolutionary (won over Code West, Golden Soul, Mylute, and Palace Malice) and Orb (outran Frac Daddy and Itsmyluckyday) are also undefeated. Unsurprisingly, these are three of the five favorite horses at the moment.

Goldencents (with 5% owned by Rick Pitino, coach of the NCAA champion and hometown Louisville Cardinal men's basketball team) is also among the top five, winning over Itsmyluckyday, Mylute, Super Ninety Nine, and Tiz a Minister, but he burned out in the San Filipe Stakes after a blistering pace opening duel. He ended up finishing fourth, behind Derby candidate Tiz a Minister. He is also of interest because if he wins, it will be under the first black jockey to win the Derby since 1902. In the 19th century and very early 20th century, many of the top jockeys were black, but as in baseball, racism would force them out of the top levels of competition.

The only other one-loss horse is Overanalyze (won races over Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, Normandy Invasion, and Oxbow, but lost to Vyjack). He is considered a longshot at the moment at 18-1, but things change. Normandy Invasion is the fifth favorite at 7-1 odds currently, despite a one win and four loss record versus other Derby contenders in qualifying races. The two in-between horses, neither favorites nor longshots, are Vyjack at 10-1 odds with a one win and two loss record, and Itsmyluckyday at 12-1 with a two win and three loss record.

All of these horses have been thoroughly examined with plenty of relevant race data to analyze. It's hard to believe that any of them will leave the starting gate at odds mispriced enough to overcome the track or bookmaker's percentage. If any of them do, it will not be a casual fan who figures that out.

Next consider the records of the horses beaten by the non-longshots. In these records, I show win, loss, and tie. Win means the horse finished among the top three, and ahead of another Derby runner. Loss means the horse finished behind another Derby runner that was among the top three finishers in the race. Tie means both horses were fourth or worse, in which case I don't consider the relative order very meaningful.
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