Random Thoughts: Stocks Rocket on the ECB... But Will It Last?
The path we take trumps the destination we arrive at.
Yesterday's missive may be right or wrong - I mapped both sides - but I can tell you that I feel much better now that I've shared that intuition. And to be clear, the path we take is more important than the destination we arrive at.
Last week, between settling the family in and enjoying the journey, I thought about how different - and difficult - the world has become. We've been forecasting it for years, but writing it and living it are two different dynamics.
The DNA of today's marketplace no longer consists of investors looking for attractive opportunities and traders capturing disconnects between perception and reality. It is algorithms that trigger in nanoseconds and a cacophony of acronym-masked government intervention.
Trade the market we have, not the market we want; I get that. What I also get is that folks have financial fatigue after a decade of booms and busts. We long ago wrote that credit of a different breed - that of credibility - will prove to be the issue at hand for markets at large.
That remains in play - truth and trust are the most valuable commodities in today's day and age. What remains to be seen is how long the facade can continue until it reaches a breaking point.
I don't profess to have the answer (anyone who claims to is not to be trusted). From here to there, you can call my stylistic approach "Jack" - nimble, quick, and looking for a candlestick as I make trades to take trades and practice discipline over conviction. This too shall pass - this we know - the goal is to be in a position to prosper once it does.
Will the second mouse get the cheese? Or will the central bank cats get the mouse?
I did look to Google (GOOG) on this move higher (to get short), but I'm avoiding that name for a while as it has the potential to be an emotional trade - and emotion is the enemy when trading.
Festivus. December 7, 2012. It rocks, and you should be there as we do our part to give back to the children who are less fortunate than we are. Click here to view past events - and if you sign up now, use "friends12" for an early-bird discount!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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