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Financial Storm Clouds Form on the Horizon


Capital preservation is the first step toward wealth accumulation.


We all know the story about the boy who cried wolf, and I make it a point not to cry and to avoid wolves. A few weeks ago, my intuition got the better of me and I posed the question, Is the Stock Market Setting Up for a Crash? Knowing thyself, I should have sat on that column for a month or so as I'm typically early and yes, often wrong. Still, I can't shake the sense that something wicked this way brews; what I am unclear on is the timing, and as we know, timing is everything.

On September 18, 2008, I penned a column after enjoying a delicious dinner at BLT Steak in Manhattan, and shared on Minyanville:

I walked into a restaurant last night and, on the way to the men's room to splash water on my face, I stopped and looked around the room. As I watched the smiling, unsuspecting patrons, I felt like jumping on a table and screaming, "PAY ATTENTION to what is happening!"

The S&P 500 traded 45% lower over the next six months.

On May 3 of this year, a week or so before I was raced into the OR, I shared a similar vibe:

I've been plenty wrong before but I would be remiss if I didn't share that I haven't slept much the last few nights, and that "Sleep-O-Meter," long dormant, has a pretty powerful track record. I tried to enjoy a charity benefit last night but as I looked around the ballroom, a distinct intuition emerged, one that hasn't happened since September 2008; I wanted to jump on a table and scream, "PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING!"

The S&P dropped 10% on a straight-shot over the next two months.

I am not jumping on a table at present-too many crosscurrents with election agendas, European survival hanging in the balance, and a Federal Reserve Chairman who will stop at nothing to flood the system with liquidity and preserve his legacy (the jury is still out; remember, the world revered Alan Greenspan for many years). I am, however, imploring you to see all sides and remove emotion from the trading equation.

Fortunes will be made and lost into year-end and beyond; I remain of the view that capital preservation is the first step toward wealth accumulation.


Twitter: @todd_harrison

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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