Random Thoughts: When Did Recession Become Public Enemy Number One?
Is the US government playing a Jedi mind trick with debt?
- We enter Turnaround Tuesday with Europe pretty in pink, performance anxiety percolating, and expiration on tap (we'll see those influences in the sessions prior to Friday).
- Was the Fed's announcement of QE with no end date the last bullet in the Fed’s arsenal? Perhaps; this is what we spoke about last summer, which was a reprise of a vibe first shared in 2007 as central banks began to mobilize.
- We often say to never let an opinion get in the way of making money. While that's easier said than done, it's paramount to successful trading in this environment.
- Over the course of my career, whenever I've adopted the mindset, "Give me a pullback so I can cover," or "Give me a rally so I can get out," it's typically preceded a major turning point for the tape.
- Why are central banks so aggressive? Are they being prudent, or is this akin to August 2007 when we witnessed a similarly coordinated global agenda put in place? If you never read The Credit Card, it's worth five minutes of your time.
- Trading tells include Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM), crude (Mid East social unrest proxy) and the super-tech duopoly of Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) for signs of slippage (Apple trades like a beast).
- The inspiration for the second song was an article in the Wall Street Journal, The Fed is Playing the Tune, the Market is Dancing. And I quote, "Profit growth flat-lining? Dance. Unemployment high, labor force shrinking? Dance. Global economy luffing? Dance. Dance. Dance."
- We penned some vibe on The Three Phase of Leave -- Denial, Migration, and Panic a few short days ago, which was pretty apropos, in hindsight. Again, the ingredients are in place for a panic higher; whether or not that happens—or if "this" is already baked into the tape and the lens shifts to the "why"—I'm not smart enough to say.
- See both sides as we together find our way.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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