Random Thoughts: Marry Love and Date Stocks
Massive catalysts are on tap for the tape.
There is a fine line between proactive patience and being stubborn — it's called the bottom line. I enter this five-session set with a right-sized tech short, defined risk, and plenty of dry powder. I respect the power of quarter-end (and yes, year-end) agendas, the (perceived) Apple (AAPL) iPhone5 roll-out reaction, the German vote, the Dutch elections, and QE3 that will shape the forward tape.
One step at a time as we together find our way.
- Watch commodities (as QE3 proxies), financials (which have acted fabu; as go the piggies, so goes the poke) and yourself, as there's no shame in admitting it's hard — there's only shame in pretending it's not.
- Please note that I will likely pare some of my short risk in an effort to get back to the disciplined approach that has served me in such good stead. I have a hard stop over NDX 2850, but I will roll that back down to 2800 if given the chance.
Linked-In (LNKD) is tickling an all-time high. Congrats to Jeff Weiner & Co. on terrific execution.
The metals traded great on Friday as opposed to crude, which continued to trade funky. The CRB — the aggregate measure of commodities — matters for obvious reasons.
- Old school Minyans will remember "Asset Class Deflation vs. Dollar Devaluation": a lower dollar is a necessary precursor to — but not a guarantor of — higher asset class prices. Note the technical significance of DXY 81, as seen in the chart below.
- The Minyanville community pulled together last summer to help the kids in tornado-torn Joplin. Minyan JM, who lives out there, offers: "Thank you for your efforts surrounding the recovery. The last of the affected hospital came down this week. Much rebuilding has occurred. The school system is functioning while their rebuilding plans continue."
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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