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Random Thoughts: Marry Love and Date Stocks

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Massive catalysts are on tap for the tape.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

It was a meaningful weekend: After 43 long but not wasted years, I celebrated my wedding on Saturday night.

Despite the tornado warning - which was in a way fitting - the positive energy was palpable as we cut the rug and shared some hugs. We often say, "Work to live; don't live to work," so I would be remiss if I didn't personally thank my beloved for bringing my dreams to life. You are one of a kind, Jamie - you are quite simply the most amazing person I've ever met.

Settling back into the world's wildest reality show...

We touched on the "Heads I Win, Tails You Lose" jobs report on Friday with an eye toward the massive catalysts that await us this week. The biggies, of course, are the German vote on Wednesday and the FOMC "rate decision" on Thursday - although that's more about QE3 than an incremental rate adjustment (real interest rates are already negative). There is also a Dutch election on Wednesday that isn't getting much press, but it will matter on the margin.

I had a conversation last week about a commodity pundit and the opinion was offered that "he's pretty good, but he dilutes his voice by writing every day." I can relate as I've written roughly five times per day since July 2000. Often times, I was in a zone that benefitted our community; other times, I found myself searching for something to say. All the while, my P&L served as a tangible manifestation of the accuracy of my opinion.

The trick to that trade - any trade, really - is something I learned long ago, and that's to never let an opinion get in the way of making money; the mechanics of the swing trump the results of the at-bat. I didn't enter 2012 particularly bullish, but I've had a decent year thus far because of my stylistic approach: Trade two-sided, hit-it-to-quit-it, and leave emotions for weddings and funerals.

Over the last month, however, I veered from that discipline; while I had some wins, I fought Google (GOOG) on the short side (which cost me coin) and I currently own some QQQ puts with a stop above NDX 2850 (which was raised from NDX 2800). While I sensed the performance anxiety percolating (as the market worked off the overbought condition as a function of time rather than price), I didn't pay proper respect to the animal spirits.

Trading - much like dieting - is a fluid process; you can trip, but you mustn't fall, and you can't celebrate the wins or beat yourself up on the losses (although I don't always practice what I preach). I share this as much for me as I do for you; unless you're a black and emotionless box (which accounts for upwards of 70% of the daily trading volume), you can relate to what I am saying.
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Position in QQQ.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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