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Random Thoughts: Is Mario Draghi Looking the Wrong Way?


The Phantom of Deflation creeps back into the collective consciousness.


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

This will be short and sweet as I've got my "final" back-to-back cardiology follow-ups at 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m., respectively. I'll tell you, these doctors make out like bandits Danny, but you won't hear me complaining. The fine folks at NYU saved my skin and if they wanna see me when the stock market opens while the ECB announces their rate decision, I am more than happy to oblige.

A few thoughts, in no particular order:
  • I had the inclination to Fade the Mainstream Media negativity yesterday and the S&P has lifted 25-some handles since that timestamp. For better and for worse, I 1) picked the wrong vehicle -- Apple (AAPL), which turned out to be a scratch despite the green seas -- and 2) I opted not to carry blind risk overnight into a morning chock full of unknowns.
  • You win some, you lose some, you push some; the takeaway, I suppose, is that the mechanics of the swing always trump the results of the at-bat. Discipline trumps conviction.
  • The S&P tickled initial resistance into yesterday's close at 1285; this morning, it's probing a more meaningful resistance at S&P 1300. Hence, the stair-step range today is S&P 1285-1300 and should the bulls push their crew through the top-end of that range, S&P 1300-1340 will come into play. Mr. Valentine has set the price.
  • The older I get, the more I realize that many folks don't get the pop culture references. I mean, I was playing Charlie Daniels the other day and most everyone in my office looked at me like I had seven heads.
  • Nothing on the rate front from the ECB, as many expected -- 25 bips would have been a Band-Aid on a broken bone, in my view -- as Draghi warns of increased downside risks (thanks, Scoop!). Instead, we got a lengthy extension to banks' unlimited access to ECB loans and a promise to "act firmly and in a timely manner on inflation."
  • Dear Mr. Draghi, please read this; my fear is that you're going the wrong way!
  • Am I the only one who thinks of Dolph Lundgren every time he speaks?
  • FLASHBACK! March 6, 2009; see both sides, always see both sides.
  • Tells today include Facebook (FB) -- I still wanna buy some for a trade in the $23-25 zone -- Apple, for signs of life after acting punky yesterday, BKX 44 (our stealth line in the sand for the financials), Europe (the dog to our stateside tail) and our stair-step guide, as discussed above.
  • Please send some white light to my pops as he recovers from a double bypass and fights off what they fear is a stroke. Energy works, and every little bit helps.
  • Thank you ever so much and I'll see YOU on the Buzz.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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