Random Thoughts: DAX, China, Crude, and the Ongoing Saga in Europe
Its a fresh five-session set for the world's wildest reality show.
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
It's a fresh five-session set for the world's wildest reality show and we're going to dive right in with some old-fashioned random thoughts:
- DAX 6500 remains the most important level in the global financial marketplace; the longer it remains under there, the more likely DAX 5800 becomes.
- China is in easing mode, having now cut its reserve requirement for its banks a third time since November (and expectations are for more aggressive easing ahead).
- Thus far, and it's 6:30 a.m. as I write, the markets are valuing the inaction in Greece (to form a unified government) more than the action by China. Remember, in our Five-Step Guide to a Contagion analog Greece is Bear Stearns.
- We've been stair-stepping our risk down with the tape, from S&P 1400 to S&P 1375 to S&P 1340; should that last level breach -- and the bulls will again attempt to defend this zone -- S&P 1340 will morph into newfound resistance.
- It's sad to see what has happened to Betty Draper; she had such potential.
- I mapped a guide to trading the global market environment last week and it remains in play (despite my taking gains and stepping to the sidelines).
- The Facebook (FB) IPO will be a huge thermometer for our current social mood. Given Mr. Zuckerberg effectively thumbed his nose at institutional investors during the road show -- showing up in a hoodie and acting somewhat flippant -- the initial public performance will depend largely on the retail reception it receives from the consumer space.
- Me? Happy to wait for Twitter or LinkedIn (LNKD) at the right price.
- Been saying for years and I'll say it again, crude $50 is entirely more problematic than crude $150.
- Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union took it on the chin over the weekend, losing an election in Germany's most populous state to the Social Democrats. Given she is the Chief Fräulein for Austerity -- not just in Germany, but for Europe as a whole -- this progression is most certainly worth watching.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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