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Random Thoughts: DAX, China, Crude, and the Ongoing Saga in Europe

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Its a fresh five-session set for the world's wildest reality show.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

It's a fresh five-session set for the world's wildest reality show and we're going to dive right in with some old-fashioned random thoughts:
  • DAX 6500 remains the most important level in the global financial marketplace; the longer it remains under there, the more likely DAX 5800 becomes.
  • China is in easing mode, having now cut its reserve requirement for its banks a third time since November (and expectations are for more aggressive easing ahead).
  • Thus far, and it's 6:30 a.m. as I write, the markets are valuing the inaction in Greece (to form a unified government) more than the action by China. Remember, in our Five-Step Guide to a Contagion analog Greece is Bear Stearns.
  • We've been stair-stepping our risk down with the tape, from S&P 1400 to S&P 1375 to S&P 1340; should that last level breach -- and the bulls will again attempt to defend this zone -- S&P 1340 will morph into newfound resistance.
  • It's sad to see what has happened to Betty Draper; she had such potential.
  • The Facebook (FB) IPO will be a huge thermometer for our current social mood. Given Mr. Zuckerberg effectively thumbed his nose at institutional investors during the road show -- showing up in a hoodie and acting somewhat flippant -- the initial public performance will depend largely on the retail reception it receives from the consumer space.
  • Me? Happy to wait for Twitter or LinkedIn (LNKD) at the right price.
  • Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union took it on the chin over the weekend, losing an election in Germany's most populous state to the Social Democrats. Given she is the Chief Fräulein for Austerity -- not just in Germany, but for Europe as a whole -- this progression is most certainly worth watching.
Good luck today, and I'll see YOU on the Buzz.

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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