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Positioning Into the Presidential Election

By

See both sides before you make a bet.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

This morning I wrote in real-time on our Buzz & Banter that "My first blush inclination was to fade (read: sell) the opening bell, but I don't have the brass tacks to do that given the current risk reward."

There's 22 years of learned wisdom in that statement; sometimes the ability not to trade is as valuable as trading ability. The 2:1 positive breadth and the traction in the financials kept me in check and at the end of the day, discipline must always trump conviction.

Will this market hold or will this fold?

Good question; let's take a look.

The Hold Camp
  • The Banks (INDEXDJX:BKX), Trannies (INDEXDJX:DJT), Semis (INDEXNASDAQ:SOX) and Metals (INDEXNASDAQ:XAU) are all outperforming the broader market (by about 70 bips each).
  • Breadth has been sticky green all session (and tapes that are strong all day with 2:1 internals tend to end that way).
  • The NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) held the 200-day and is trading above that all-important level (NDX 2661)
The Fold Camp
  • Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) -- which has been a great leading indicator -- is back below the 200-day.
  • The specter of uncertainty looms large -- and uncertainty is bad for the tape (or at least it used to be).
  • The S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) continues to churn and is facing resistance in the S&P 1430-1435 range, per the chart below.


Where Do I Net Out?

My sense -- and it's just a sense -- is that odds favor a downdraft tomorrow.

How much conviction do I have? Enough to share (all a man has is his name and his word) but not enough to slap bank on the table.

With a Nor'easter on the way and a powerless house in the burbs, my focus needs to be on my family and my business -- in that order -- with my P&L a distant third.

Good luck, and may peace be with you!

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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