Random Thoughts: It's Do or Die for the Bullish Try!
By Todd Harrison Nov 12, 2012 10:52 am
Musings on RIMM, Greece, the fiscal cliff, and 2012.
Corrections -- by definition -- must feel sinister for them to truly be corrections. That's the bull case; the bear case looks something like the "Three Peaks and a Domed House" pattern that was shared on the Buzz earlier, courtesy of Dougie "Don't Call Me Mama" Kass.
With everyone and their Cousin Daryl watching the S&P as a primary tell, we must be conscious of the potential for a "Drop & Pop," which is the mirror image of a "Pop & Drop." In other words, the path of maximum frustration may clear out the dip buyers before a rally emerges.
Tells in that regard include the financials (JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS)), which are enduring a process of price discovery following last week's election, big cap tech (Apple, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) as performance anxiety proxies, and the energy and metal space, as commodity volatility typically precedes equity movement.
Finally, I wanna share an email that made me smile with hopes that it makes you smile, too. It is from an old-school Minyan in Louisiana who shot me a note; I replied with a terse answer followed by another email, where I said, "I'm sorry -- I'm not myself today." His response is below -- and it sure sums up this nutty strut of a year:
"Why aren't you yourself today? I mean over the last year or so (and these are only things I know about) you got married during a tornado warning, had your first child, took on the raising of two other children, got a wife, lost control of the closet and bathroom because of the marriage, left the life of a rocking bachelor to buy a house in the suburbs only to immediately have a hurricane, something that never hits NYC, whack the crap out of your house and property, then leave you isolated from your start-up business that you have your heart, soul and net worth invested in, a company where people call every day and ask hard questions regarding what they invested in, having people ask you about payroll and new equipment while banks don't do what banks are supposed to do, trying to get back in shape and lose a few pounds because you recently had heart surgery, which said program of weight loss is not working and peanut M&Ms call out to you because like me, you are a stress eater, not to mention breaking your ankle at your bachelor party in an incident involving a midget and some other vague stuff that your wife best never hear about, and getting back to the hurricane, you have a wife and three kids looking to you for answers about the hurricane where your only true response is, 'Hey, this is my first hurricane too!' and the lack of sleep from no electricity and you baby girl crying because she is hurting from a double ear infection and it is breaking your heart and tearing your gut up because you can't take that burden from her, and because you are over 40 and a "boss" who does eSignal commercials, everyone thinks you should have all the answers to everything, and grandpa Ruby isn't here to have your back. Then to top it off, your buddy who lives in Louisiana, whose face you have never seen, someone who you thought would always be there for you, is acting like an insensitive ***** for seemingly no reason at all and is coming off like an inbred, which in your present state of mind, leaves you with only one response to him, that being, 'Well, if that doesn't just top things off?' Did I miss anything? No, I have no idea why you aren't yourself today."
- Good luck and remember that profitability begins within.
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