Global Markets Take It on the Chin
Is this the beginning -- or the end -- of the sell-off?
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
Earnings continue to disappoint, Europe is taking it on the chin, and commodities, as measured by the CRB, are now down for the calendar year. What to do? Breathe, and take our journey one step at a time.
Some random thoughts, in no particular order:
The NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) Head & Shoulders that we've been talking about for weeks "worked" to NDX 2670 (on the nose) and the 200-day moving average is directly below at NDX 2650.
If the bulls are gonna make a stand, this is where they'll do it. If and when we get toward that latter level, I'll likely fade (read: buy) the decline for a (pure) trade with very defined risk.
The S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 200-day rests below at 1375; while alotta folks are chatting up the importance of S&P 1400, I would argue that those extra 25 points will "matter," if and when.
I've been stopped out of the second half of my Research In Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) long stock position. I made a bit on the first half, lost a bit on the second half, and now move to the sidelines in this particular stock.
I understand the financial sector is lower as a whole (the S&P warned late yesterday that the Volcker Rule could slice billions from bank earnings) but that Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) insider window trade (discussed last week on the Minyanville Buzz & Banter) again worked like a charm. I have no horse in that race but those who jockeyed for position are realizing a nice gain.
The bull case? This is the pause that refreshes before the year-end sprint and there are more bears than there were one month and 8% ago in the NASDAQ.
The bear case? We've thrown upwards of $15 trillion at the economy and we're slinking along at 1.3% GDP growth and corporate earnings are missing worse than A-Rod in the clutch. The upshot? Chatter abounds that Ben Bernanke won't seek a third term -- it won't be his choice if Romney wins -- and if you take the crutch away from the tape...
Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) continues to hold the all-important $19 level, BUT earnings tonight will move the stock $5 in either direction, in my view.
- Festivus 2012 is six weeks from Friday! We've got the same bands as last year-terrific Journey, U2, and Police covers-all-you-can-eat BBQ, and the very best human capital in the 'Ville getting together to effect positive change for children's education. Come one, come all-but lock your spot as we'll be closing the doors at 500 confirms once again this year!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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