Random Thoughts: A Historic Milestone in Minyanville
What a long strange trip it's been!
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
The first day of the fourth quarter started as a lion and morphed into a lamb, with the mainstay proxies drifting lower as the clock tocked toward the close.
While I used the intraday price action to rotate risk-I sold my Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) position when Sheryl Sandberg appeared on CNBC, and legged out of my remaining QQQ (NASDAQ:QQQ) puts when the tape slipped lower in the afternoon-the session was more or less a nonevent.
Enjoy it while it lasts for it won't last long. Earnings season kicks off next week and time will once again prove to be the most precious commodity (with "truth" and "trust" second and third).
Some random thoughts in no particular order:
- Yesterday was Minyanville's "official" birthday-we published our first article on October 1, 2002! The Mission of Minyanville has been a labor of love, and I must thank each and every one of you for sharing the journey with us. What a long strange trip it's been!
I had my first commuting snafu this morning, missing my train by a minute only to have my new train delayed in the tunnel to Penn Station. Do you know what I'm going to do about it? NOTHING! I know all too well that it could be a lot worse, and for alotta folks out there, it already is.
I've heard a lot of complaints from the early Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 5 users, most of which had to do with the new power cord and the lack of available adapters. I'm sure this will work out for the company but it may present some growing pains as far as the product cycle is concerned.
- The S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) uptrend channel remains in place and the bulls won't break a sweat until that breaks. See the chart below as a picture speaks 1,000 words.
Do I think it breaks? Yes, but I'm not getting in front of it. Discipline over conviction as we together find our way.
After some risk rotation last week and yesterday, I enter today's session with a few Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) out-of-the-money puts, some Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) common stock, and plenty of dry powder so I can pounce when we see the whites of their eyes.
I don't have a horse in the gold race but I'll draw your attention to the $1,800 level. If you're a
bug gnatbull, a push through that zone will give you nice and tight defined risk (with a stop back below $1,800). Ditto if you're a bear; you can set your 'buy-stop' above $1800. Different strokes for different folks.
- Yesterday, we spoke about the "right shoulder" of the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) Head & Shoulders formation (when I set my buy stop above NDX 2830 in real-time on the Buzz). While I punted my puts when the tech sector flipped the crimson switch, I would be remiss if I didn't keep this pattern in front of you. A break of NDX 2770 would trigger the a measured move to NDX 2670 (in a vacuum). It's but one of our four primary metrics but it should remain on our radar as technicals tend to self-fulfill in the absence of clarity.
I was reprimanded by the referee at Gavin's Peewee football game on Sunday. Evidently it's frowned upon for a coach to follow the play screaming "TOUCHDOWN!" (It won't happen again, but I will never forget that moment.)
Festivus is Friday, December 7, 2012. To see pictures of previous events, click here. To register for this year's soiree, click here. To inquire about having your firm sponsor the event -- you're a reflection of the company you keep as we do our part to help the kids -- please contact me directly. Every little bit helps!
- Good luck today and remember, profitability begins within!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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