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Random Thoughts: The Monday Market, Twitter IPO, and History Repeating


A look at financial happenings from soup to nuts.

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

It's a brand-new day for the markets as we fire up a fresh five-session set. As we shake the football from our brains-how 'bout them Raiders!-and focus on the flickering ticks, the following vibes are top of mind as we find our way, in no particular order:
  • With 45 sessions left in 2013, the Dow (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is up 19%, the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is up 24%, and the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) up 31%; how do you spell performance anxiety? N-O-W.
  • Monday market breadth is balanced, the dollar is marginally higher, and commodities and stocks are mixed. This is considered "basing" above support (it would be "churning" under resistance) as long as S&P 1730 and NDX 3255 remain below.
  • While there are some newsworthy events floating around-accusations of spying on our allies, the threat of transparency at the Federal Reserve (something I would like to see), and chatter that Norway, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, is wary of a stock market reversal-the stock market remains a Teflon Don.
  • Respect, don't defer, to the price action.
  • There are rumblings that Thursday is year-end for mutual funds, and that might reduce the upward thrust (as funds no longer defend positions). That remains to be seen, but it should be on your radar.
  • The banks are somewhat slinky this morning-it's all relative-as are most of the high-beta plays, including Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). As these two complexes led the tape higher, they're of particular importance as market tells.
  • Seems like old times! Hamptons Sales Surge Fuels High-End Home Tear-Downs.
  • Do I think Twitter will rock and roll as an IPO? Yes. Do I think you should buy it? Depends on where you can get it.
  • My travels, communications, and meetings have been an absolute snarl this week, lest you think Mercury Retrograde is a joke.
  • I've always liked Eminem from a distance, but his new work is particularly good if you're into that sorta thing.
  • JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) is trading near triple sixes ($6.66); maybe history rhymes for it (as it did for the S&P when it traded at 666 in March 2009).
  • A lot of smart money got caught in that name; yet another example of staying humble lest the market do it for you.
  • I'm not a fan of big money managers talking up heir positions on Twitter, but perhaps it's a sign of the times.
  • Love it or hate it, it's hard to argue with Mr. Icahn's performance of late; he bagged the elephant in Netflix, among others.
  • Crashes don't occur from overbought levels; corrections occur from overbought levels. Crashes occur from oversold levels
  • Many thanks to Syracuse Lacrosse Captain Derek Maltz for spending Saturday with the Port Washington Select Class of 2022. That pebble will ripple far and wide in the pond of life.
  • A man killed a mother and four kids because "they had too much"? Very sad but true.
  • The chart below was shared by Minyanville reader Eric, who adds, "f you told people that the move from March 2009 is like the move from 1995-2000, I don't think that they would believe you." 'Tis true, and while the percentage move was much greater back then, the absolute move is quite the coincidence-or is it?
  • Good luck this week; be the ball.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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