Todd Harrison: 6 Things You Need to Know for Today's Financial Markets
Information overload beats the street.
Argentina: We spoke about the peso melt yesterday, and the government announced plans to ease currency controls today. It remains to be seen how effective that will be; as it stands we're not seeing (m)any sellers of single-name emerging market CDS.
Earnings: With 24% of the S&P 500 having reported, 67% beat revenue expectations and 73% beat EPS estimates; earnings growth is growing at the second fastest rate of the last eight quarters, albeit with lagging revenues. Brick-and-mortar retail, for its part, has been the single biggest disappointment.
China: The economic data has been decidedly soft, although the Shanghai stock market has been discounting that to a degree. Once upon a time, China was the growth engine for the world and that sword swings both ways.
PIMCO: The departure of Mohamed El-Erian is fading from the news cycle; only time will tell if it produces a "Sam Zell-like" inflection point with the benefit of hindsight.
Technical Levels: S&P 1850 whack-a-moled the breakout attempt by the bulls (S&P 1800 is important support), while NDX 3600 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) remains stickier than a Fathead factory.
Japan: Japan is a very crowded trade, with macro funds betting on the country in some way, shape, or form. If the Nikkei (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) breaks 15,100, a "measured move" works to NKY 13,900 as a first stop.
There are others dynamics jockeying for mind share -- civil unrest in Turkey and the Ukraine, which speaks more to social mood than tangible catalysts -- but those are the biggies. Compartmentalize the particulars and assimilate them into your forward risk profile, while understanding that perception is reality regarding where we are in the current psychological continuum.
Good luck today, and have an awesome weekend -- you've earned it!
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter