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Todd Harrison's Random Thoughts: Crude, Cannabis and the DealBook Conference


We live in interesting times.


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

With twelve more sessions left in the calendar year, the powers that be are fighting it out one byte at a time.

The recent rally--15% in the S&P in seven weeks--almost got fund managers to year-end.  It was almost that easy.

The market slipped on oil in the first week of December, and it's slippery still. 

A wise man once sang, "If I knew the way, I would take you home" and that pretty much sums it up. 

2015; wow.  Some Random Thoughts as we put a bow on it.

S&P 2000/2005 is the next real support, if and when.

I continue to feel cannabis will be a powerful secular theme for the next decade; and I'm not alone.

Jeff Saut quoting Derek Zoolander; #BLUESTEEL

I used to say, "Crude $50 is a lot more problematic than Crude $150."  I guess we'll see?|

Someone on CNBC asked yesterday, "If someone knows why lower crude is bad for the market, please tell me."

So I sent him this link.

At least one very smart billionaire is (also) of the view that the Fed is to blame for income inequality.

Ray Dalio is one of the more fascinating people I've ever come across; and then I stumbled on this article last night, which supports one of his primary thesis'.

Once upon a time in the days of M3, Alan Greenspan assured us that asset prices did not impact Fed policy.

"I never allow myself to have an opinion on anything that I don't know the other side's argument better than they do."  Charlie Munger

Awesome conference yesterday; just remember when you watch it, "where you stand is a function of where you sit."

That must have been some conversation in the green room.

Breadth 2:1 negative on the Big Board, 3:1 in four-letter land.

Gold $1200; like a moth to a flame.

I remember looking at that Twitter (TWTR) chart, after it couldn't rally with the tape, as it traced out a textbook head & shoulder formation that 'works' lower still.  I didn't wanna trade the stock, I wanna buy it lower, so I hand-sat.  We'll shall see.

Seeing a lot more energy pickers than energy shorts; maybe it's an early 2015 thing?

I enjoy writing when I have something to say vs. writing just to say something.

Dealbook Conference

I spent yesterday at One World Trade Center for the annual DealBook conference and it did not disappoint.  The individual sessions can be watched free of charge and I recommend absorbing the collective acumen if and when you find the time.  I've included a list of the videos below.

Jacob Lew, Secretary of the Treasury.

Mary Jo White, SEC Commision Chair

Lloyd Blankfein, CEO Goldman Sachs

Mary Barra, CEO General Motors

Ray Dalio, Chairman/CIO Bridgewater Associates

Jeff Bewkes, CEO Time Warner Inc.

Hosain Rahman, CEO Jawbone

Laurence Fink, CEO BlackRock

Jessica Alba / Brian Lee, co-founders The Honest Company

John Hering, CEO Lookout

Tony Schwartz, CEO The Energy Project

Stephen A. Schwarzman, CEO Blackstone

Ken Chenault, CEO American Express

Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner


Twitter: @todd_harrison

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Position in TWTR.
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