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US Stocks: The Bulls Give Thanks to Start the Week, but Will This Mood Last?


The good, the bad, and the ugly.

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

The world is awash with positive vibes as we power up this holiday-shortened week, with the proposed accord on the Iran nuclear program providing the latest spark.

Performance anxiety-a backdrop in market action and the context for the long squeeze we've been talking about for the last month-is playing an equal if not greater role in early-morning trading; fund managers need to buy their kids a G.I. Joe with a Kung-Fu Grip.

With 25 sessions left in 2013, the bulls continue to ride the benefit of the market's doubt as the bear case-and in many cases, the bears themselves-continues to be debunked.

Historic government balance sheet, you say? No problem, the Fed will never sell the oodles of mortgage-backed securities it owns.

Income disparity and the negative impact on social mood? If they're not fully invested, let them eat cake.

Tapering? Heads I win (the economy will be better by the time they take away the punch bowl), tails you lose (or they won't!).

We can debate these perceptions-personally, I think the Iran accord pushes Israel closer to unilateral military action-but that's conjecture on a holiday-week Monday.

Through a pure trading lens, we will monitor our tells (breadth is balanced, banks are outperforming yet again, and high beta is a bag of mixed nuts) and watch our levels (S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1775 is the downside level of lore) as we eye the tryptophan and prepare to give thanks.

Random Thought: The Gold Fold?

Remember the head-and-shoulders pattern in gold we flagged a while back? It triggered, with the downside move through $1,250. As long as that level remains above (read: defined risk for the bears), this pattern "works" through a pure technical lens to gold $1,065.

Technical analysis is just one of four primary metrics (fundamentals, structural, and psychology being the others), so take this with a grain of salt as we together find our way.


Twitter: @todd_harrison

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