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Todd Harrison: The Sun Also Rises


A brand-new day in Minyanville.

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

I had the strangest dream last night; a combination of Jerry Maguire's mission statement and the final battle in 8-Mile. I awoke this morning to find my three-year-old princess cuddling by my side, the sun rising from the east, and the markets trading with a better tone. Yes, it's another day in Minyanville.
To clarify yesterday's message -- and the subsequent coverage in the Wall Street Journal -- the takeaway for those within our community is business as usual. We will continue to publish the real-time Buzz & Banter, longer-form News & Views, the new and improved MV PRO, and the education center, MV EDU, while mapping our strategic next steps.
And so it's said, I have every intention of insisting that our loyal community have access to our content and products if and as the next stepping stone emerges. I've always believed that all great things require a matter of trust and a leap of faith, and that is self-evident in this approach.  Time will tell and the universe will show us the way.
The Truman Show-esque nature of this process notwithstanding, we've promised we're not going to let the seismic shift distract us from our mission at hand, so through that lens, and with respect to our time, some Random Thoughts:

  • Money managers have one eye on the markets and the other on Memorial Day.  If the past is a prologue, the meat of this week's heat is almost done, with Thursday and Friday tapering off in kind. The Wall Street A-Team typically leaves tag-ends to staffers, and less trading can paradoxically create more volatility (liquidity is the opposite of volatility); size accordingly.
  • "Bend not break" has been the calling card of this market for years now; that has manifested in several ways, including sentiment indicators and aggregate volatility levels (VXO (INDEXCBOE:VXO) 12). These aren't timing mechanisms (the VXO hugged 10 from 2004-2006), but they are conditional elements of an off-sides, so keep that in the back of your crowded keppe.
  • The much-discussed Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) breakout is thisclose, but needs to clear (and close above) the $600-$605.
  • The good news for the Bloomberg Smart Money Index?  It hasn't widened in the last few days.  The bad news?  It's still at a disparity last seen in 2007.
  • We touched on the BKX (INDEXSP:BKX) vs. SPX (INDEXSP:.INX) (relative performance of the financials vs. the broader tape.  That chart is below, along with an absolute lens: A break of BKX 66 works to BKX 58 (a decline of 12% if and when).

  • And here is a chart of the small caps against the S&P.  If the Russell (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) is a proxy for risk appetites, this is yet another piece in our ever-changing puzzle.  Until the Russell stops going down, it's hard to argue (position) for a Snapper higher.  The S&P 200-day, as a point of context, is down at 1788, or about 4% below current levels.
  • Japan may be bottoming, per that earlier column, but if the Nikkei (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) doesn't hold 14,000, the chart works to 11,700, which is 16% lower.

  • And yes, the S&P, Dow Jones (INDEXDJX:.DJI), and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) remain within a 2% band on either side of the year-to-date flat line. 
  • The level of lore in tech is NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) 3400, but we've got some cushion; a break of that level works toward NDX 3050, if and when.

  • My purchase of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) at $29.99 doesn't look as snazzy now as it did last week, but I've been (cough) encouraged to hold it.  My wife did say that I should sell it if I see news that would cause the stock to drop a lot; I thought about explaining the efficient market hypothesis to her but opted instead to tell her how much I love her.
  • It is easy to look back on what you've done or where you've been, but that comfort comes with the cost of containment. By inverting the curve and looking "up and out" rather than "down and back," you open a universe of potential outcomes. I truly believe that.
  • I also believe that in the digital realm, Minyanville was one of many voices vying for attention; with this pivot, I hope to invert that curve; almost every broker-dealer needs a digital presence, and there is only one Minyanville.  My cards are officially on the table and I'm all in; again, time will tell.
  • Family and health, health and family.  Take care of those and everything else will fall into place.
  • As always, I hope this finds you well.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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