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Todd Harrison: The Stock Market Road Map

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Stair-step levels that will pave our forward path.

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Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.


Thirsty Thursday is upon us -- yes please! -- as we edge toward the fish-or-cut-bait level that is S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1775.

It's been a long time since the bulls had their backs against the wall, but after 13 straight months of being rewarded for buying the dips, they're not too worried (which may be a reason to worry).

Should S&P 1775 hold, shame on the bears yet again, as the bulls will again set their sights on S&P 1800 or higher; should that level give way, the trend line from November 2012, in and around S&P 1730-1740, will come into play. See both levels on the chart below.

Market internals are currently 2:1 negative on the big board, the banks -- which dragged the tape lower yesterday -- are now outperforming (they've been a super tell), and high-beta tech is a mixed bag, buoyed by the price action in Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) following last night's news that it will be added to the S&P (as index funds buy the stock).



Random Thoughts:
  • I won't go so far as to say The Holiday Party Indicator triggered yesterday's decline, but the inability of the futures to lift in the face of good news -- or, news that would have lifted the tape in the past -- was telling. Sometimes you can learn a lot just by watching.
  • When is the last time the dip shtick didn't reward the buyers? Where is the path of maximum frustration? And where are we on the denial-migration-panic curve?
  • The online brokers, sitting on a slew of cash, stand to benefit from a rise in interest rates. In looking through the group, I noticed that TD Ameritrade (NYSE:AMTD) looks poised to break out to a fresh 52-week high. This is one to watch.
R.P.

Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with TD Ameritrade.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real-time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
Position in SPY.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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