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Todd Harrison: The Stock Market Road Map


Stair-step levels that will pave our forward path.


Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

Thirsty Thursday is upon us -- yes please! -- as we edge toward the fish-or-cut-bait level that is S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1775.

It's been a long time since the bulls had their backs against the wall, but after 13 straight months of being rewarded for buying the dips, they're not too worried (which may be a reason to worry).

Should S&P 1775 hold, shame on the bears yet again, as the bulls will again set their sights on S&P 1800 or higher; should that level give way, the trend line from November 2012, in and around S&P 1730-1740, will come into play. See both levels on the chart below.

Market internals are currently 2:1 negative on the big board, the banks -- which dragged the tape lower yesterday -- are now outperforming (they've been a super tell), and high-beta tech is a mixed bag, buoyed by the price action in Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) following last night's news that it will be added to the S&P (as index funds buy the stock).

Random Thoughts:
  • I won't go so far as to say The Holiday Party Indicator triggered yesterday's decline, but the inability of the futures to lift in the face of good news -- or, news that would have lifted the tape in the past -- was telling. Sometimes you can learn a lot just by watching.
  • When is the last time the dip shtick didn't reward the buyers? Where is the path of maximum frustration? And where are we on the denial-migration-panic curve?
  • The online brokers, sitting on a slew of cash, stand to benefit from a rise in interest rates. In looking through the group, I noticed that TD Ameritrade (NYSE:AMTD) looks poised to break out to a fresh 52-week high. This is one to watch.

Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with TD Ameritrade.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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