A car driving through the night, the headlights only reach 200 feet in front of the car. But you could make it all the way from California to New York whilst driving in the dark, because all you have to see is the next 200 feet. And that's how life tends to unfold before us.
-- Jack Canfield
It's been a nutty strut as I shuffle meetings and settle into my turret for the first time today. In the five sessions after my state of the media union published, I've explored various scenarios consistent with my stated objective. Some are traditional and others more "out there," but all have been thought-provoking exercises that will lead to a more positive pathway. And if I have my druthers, the Minyanville Experience -- from the content to our community to the more creative elements -- will not only continue to provoke positive change but thrive through a new business model.
As with most change, the fear of the unknown often emerges. I'm reminded of a time in my life when I navigated a similar situation; it was the end of 2004 and I was at a professional -- and in many ways, personal -- crossroads. I experienced a sequence of extremely powerful emotions; I walked toward the Arizona Mountains feeling particularly sorry for myself and returned with a newfound sense of purpose.
I shared the story in my 2010 e-book Memoirs of a Minyan. This passage was in Chapter 17, the section titled Desert Storm:
Time will tell, I suppose, and that's OK; the forward path will be more empowering and sustainable than trying to do the same thing the same way over and over again and hoping for a different result. Much like trading, having the proper perspective is half the battle when mapping a profitable plan.
In terms of the tape, the go-along, get-along market -- yes, the same one that is at all-time highs -- continues. We've mapped a number of outlooks and observations in the last few sessions -- including the all-important breakout in the S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) and the price action in the Russell (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) -- and they more or less remain in play.
- On May 9, we shared some vibes on Gold over on our real-time Buzz & Banter that offered the following:
No, not The Gold Scold -- which was one of the luckier top-ticks in Minyanville history -- this is more along the lines of "hmmm...interesting."
I saw the first gold chart below and turned my head sideways, wondering if it is a (bearish) upside-down cup-and-handle, and I'm not sure but...IF gold breaks $1,275, it looks to have room to the downside, per the first chart below.
From there, gold $1,200 comes into play, and if that puppy breaks, you'll hear a lot of deflation whispers making the rounds.
- Fast-forward 18 days and gold has smelted lower in kind. We're now below the first level of lore but above the level of lore, which is gold $1,200. See the field position as a risk context in framing your forward financial decisions.
- We've touched on the levels of lore in the S&P, BKX (INDEXSP:.BKX), gold, and the Russell; let's add one more to the mix. Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) 3740 is the 2014 high, and if breached to the upside, we'll arrive at levels last seen in Y2K.
- For purposes of perspective, the NDX all-time high was also in Y2K, earlier that spring, up at NDX 4825 (not to be confused with Nasdaq Composite (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) 5000), which was a few months before I fell into writing. What a long, strange trip it's been.
- Given that a few folks have asked, I'll communicate that I'm still long Twitter (NYSE:TWTR), so I'll leave you with these thoughts, along with the updated Bloomberg Smart Money Index chart below. As always, I hope this finds you well
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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