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Todd Harrison: Freaky Friday Potpourri
Vibes and scribes from the front lines.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

We're all confused; what's to lose? You can call this song, the United States Blues...
-- Grateful Dead

Freaky Friday is upon us as the world casts a wary eye toward the Middle East. 

If you're feeling like we just went through this exercise -- managing risk into the weekend against a fragile geopolitical landscape -- you're correct. 

I recall one particular Friday when the Ukraine didn't matter, which provided a pretty solid tell that higher prices were in the cards. This is a different situation, of course, but the same premise applies: We can learn a lot just by watching, and crude should be the primary proxy on our radar.

Adding spice to an already spicy mix, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) raised its Q2 revenue forecast late yesterday, providing a fundamental shot in the arm for the stock. 

With Intel pegged to the PC industry, where they make most of their cake -- and after two years of declining global shipments -- we should watch the wake that this pebble leaves in the pond (INTC --> SOX --> NDX --> S&P).  The stock ran 10% over the last month into this news, so that should be factored in as well.

Only a few more hours before the weekend, so let's do it right and make it count. Good luck, and play like a San Antonio Spur today.

Random Thoughts:

  • Bullish sentiment spiked to the highest level of 2014; it remains to be seen if the consensus is again rewarded.
     
  • It feels like déjà vu all over again in Iraq; keep an eye on crude as a proxy for unrest in the region. Crude $105 is/was an important technical level.
  • Can't say I'm surprised to see conflicts escalate throughout the world; it's one 'theme' I wish I whiffed on.
     
  • Europe trades flat; it may be the tail to the US dog, but it's worth noting as we fire up the final fifth of this freaky week.
     
  • Three words came to mind yesterday: "Bend, not break." That's the knee-jerk reaction to "down" tapes; old habits die hard.
     
  • The Bloomberg Smart Money Index hasn't been that smart over the last month or so, but smart people are patient, or so it seems.
  • I asked the talented Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader about the relationship between crude and the transports.  His response: "There is probably some kind of correlation somewhere between them on some time frame, but looking at monthly correlations over the past 30 years, it is only slightly negative and not significant. Below is a scatter plot between transports and crude oil since 1984."
 
 
  • GW Pharma (NASDAQ:GWPH) has been on the move again, consistent with some of our recent thoughts on cannabis.
     
  • Goldman (NYSE:GS) and Morgan (NYSE:MS) bucked the trend in the financials yesterday; watch these stocks.  As go the piggies, so goes the poke.
     
  • It's universally accepted that higher crude is a "tax" on consumers. I would argue that it depends on why crude is going up or down.  And was that discussion really eight years ago already?
     
  • I never got the "buy two shares of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and short one share of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)" pairs trade on, although I'm long Twitter at lower levels.  I still think paired exposure (playing the alpha) makes sense.
     
  • Every time the VXO (INDEXCBOE:VXO) gets close to 10, it has paid to fade stocks (lower), at least for a trade.
  • A long, strange trip indeed.  As always, I hope this finds you well.
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Position in TWTR.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Todd Harrison: Freaky Friday Potpourri
Vibes and scribes from the front lines.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

We're all confused; what's to lose? You can call this song, the United States Blues...
-- Grateful Dead

Freaky Friday is upon us as the world casts a wary eye toward the Middle East. 

If you're feeling like we just went through this exercise -- managing risk into the weekend against a fragile geopolitical landscape -- you're correct. 

I recall one particular Friday when the Ukraine didn't matter, which provided a pretty solid tell that higher prices were in the cards. This is a different situation, of course, but the same premise applies: We can learn a lot just by watching, and crude should be the primary proxy on our radar.

Adding spice to an already spicy mix, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) raised its Q2 revenue forecast late yesterday, providing a fundamental shot in the arm for the stock. 

With Intel pegged to the PC industry, where they make most of their cake -- and after two years of declining global shipments -- we should watch the wake that this pebble leaves in the pond (INTC --> SOX --> NDX --> S&P).  The stock ran 10% over the last month into this news, so that should be factored in as well.

Only a few more hours before the weekend, so let's do it right and make it count. Good luck, and play like a San Antonio Spur today.

Random Thoughts:

  • Bullish sentiment spiked to the highest level of 2014; it remains to be seen if the consensus is again rewarded.
     
  • It feels like déjà vu all over again in Iraq; keep an eye on crude as a proxy for unrest in the region. Crude $105 is/was an important technical level.
  • Can't say I'm surprised to see conflicts escalate throughout the world; it's one 'theme' I wish I whiffed on.
     
  • Europe trades flat; it may be the tail to the US dog, but it's worth noting as we fire up the final fifth of this freaky week.
     
  • Three words came to mind yesterday: "Bend, not break." That's the knee-jerk reaction to "down" tapes; old habits die hard.
     
  • The Bloomberg Smart Money Index hasn't been that smart over the last month or so, but smart people are patient, or so it seems.
  • I asked the talented Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader about the relationship between crude and the transports.  His response: "There is probably some kind of correlation somewhere between them on some time frame, but looking at monthly correlations over the past 30 years, it is only slightly negative and not significant. Below is a scatter plot between transports and crude oil since 1984."
 
 
  • GW Pharma (NASDAQ:GWPH) has been on the move again, consistent with some of our recent thoughts on cannabis.
     
  • Goldman (NYSE:GS) and Morgan (NYSE:MS) bucked the trend in the financials yesterday; watch these stocks.  As go the piggies, so goes the poke.
     
  • It's universally accepted that higher crude is a "tax" on consumers. I would argue that it depends on why crude is going up or down.  And was that discussion really eight years ago already?
     
  • I never got the "buy two shares of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and short one share of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)" pairs trade on, although I'm long Twitter at lower levels.  I still think paired exposure (playing the alpha) makes sense.
     
  • Every time the VXO (INDEXCBOE:VXO) gets close to 10, it has paid to fade stocks (lower), at least for a trade.
  • A long, strange trip indeed.  As always, I hope this finds you well.
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Position in TWTR.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Todd Harrison: Freaky Friday Potpourri
Vibes and scribes from the front lines.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

We're all confused; what's to lose? You can call this song, the United States Blues...
-- Grateful Dead

Freaky Friday is upon us as the world casts a wary eye toward the Middle East. 

If you're feeling like we just went through this exercise -- managing risk into the weekend against a fragile geopolitical landscape -- you're correct. 

I recall one particular Friday when the Ukraine didn't matter, which provided a pretty solid tell that higher prices were in the cards. This is a different situation, of course, but the same premise applies: We can learn a lot just by watching, and crude should be the primary proxy on our radar.

Adding spice to an already spicy mix, Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) raised its Q2 revenue forecast late yesterday, providing a fundamental shot in the arm for the stock. 

With Intel pegged to the PC industry, where they make most of their cake -- and after two years of declining global shipments -- we should watch the wake that this pebble leaves in the pond (INTC --> SOX --> NDX --> S&P).  The stock ran 10% over the last month into this news, so that should be factored in as well.

Only a few more hours before the weekend, so let's do it right and make it count. Good luck, and play like a San Antonio Spur today.

Random Thoughts:

  • Bullish sentiment spiked to the highest level of 2014; it remains to be seen if the consensus is again rewarded.
     
  • It feels like déjà vu all over again in Iraq; keep an eye on crude as a proxy for unrest in the region. Crude $105 is/was an important technical level.
  • Can't say I'm surprised to see conflicts escalate throughout the world; it's one 'theme' I wish I whiffed on.
     
  • Europe trades flat; it may be the tail to the US dog, but it's worth noting as we fire up the final fifth of this freaky week.
     
  • Three words came to mind yesterday: "Bend, not break." That's the knee-jerk reaction to "down" tapes; old habits die hard.
     
  • The Bloomberg Smart Money Index hasn't been that smart over the last month or so, but smart people are patient, or so it seems.
  • I asked the talented Jason Goepfert of Sentimentrader about the relationship between crude and the transports.  His response: "There is probably some kind of correlation somewhere between them on some time frame, but looking at monthly correlations over the past 30 years, it is only slightly negative and not significant. Below is a scatter plot between transports and crude oil since 1984."
 
 
  • GW Pharma (NASDAQ:GWPH) has been on the move again, consistent with some of our recent thoughts on cannabis.
     
  • Goldman (NYSE:GS) and Morgan (NYSE:MS) bucked the trend in the financials yesterday; watch these stocks.  As go the piggies, so goes the poke.
     
  • It's universally accepted that higher crude is a "tax" on consumers. I would argue that it depends on why crude is going up or down.  And was that discussion really eight years ago already?
     
  • I never got the "buy two shares of Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) and short one share of Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)" pairs trade on, although I'm long Twitter at lower levels.  I still think paired exposure (playing the alpha) makes sense.
     
  • Every time the VXO (INDEXCBOE:VXO) gets close to 10, it has paid to fade stocks (lower), at least for a trade.
  • A long, strange trip indeed.  As always, I hope this finds you well.
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
Position in TWTR.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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