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Todd Harrison: An Angry World Awaits the Other Side of All-Time Highs
The stock market dances on the head of a pin.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

The storyteller makes no choice, soon you will not hear his voice; his job is to shed light and not to master.
-- Grateful Dead

July 1st -- the halfway point of the calendar year. For all the hemming, hawing back-and-forth -- which included a near-death experience for the tech market -- the mainstay averages held their own, thank you very much: The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) notched 6% gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) edged 2% higher.

Wall Street is a bottom-line industry; at the end of the day, week, month, quarter, and year, one's value is determined by gains minus losses.  It's a pretty cut-and-dry world, even if the approaches and styles -- if not the entire DNA of the marketplace -- drastically shifted in the last decade.

Eat what you kill; you're only as good as your last trade; finance has always been Darwinian but perhaps, now, more than ever, it has become a matter of survival.  All the while, volatility -- once widely viewed as an index of fear -- is near all-time lows as the S&P trades at an all-time high.  On its face, times they are a-groovy.

Something is seething under the seemingly calm surface, however; we call it social mood, but it has many names. The devolution has been so pernicious and persistent that we've seemingly developed an ingrained defense mechanism against it, not unlike walking past a homeless man and pretending not to have loose change.

Plutocrats see it coming too, even if most prefer not to discuss or acknowledge it.  And signs surround anyone who is aware enough to pay attention. Porsche (OTCMKTS:POAHF) reports its best June sales ever this morning while more than one-quarter of Americans live in poverty.  It's a bifurcation we've been talking about for a decade -- the eradication of the middle class -- and no, this isn't a victory lap.

I used to discuss the difference between an economic recovery and a stock market rally and the chasm between perception and reality.  None of that mattered -- it was a waste of time and a waste of breath as the tape powered higher; any modicum of caution was costly to performance.  As a result, reward-chasing is back in vogue and risk management is considered a mug's game; it is the mirror image of March 2009.

We're in the midst of navigating our next steps as a company -- and yes, for me personally, as well.  We are having several discussions  -- a pivot back to Wall Street, an angle toward communications, an entertainment ancillary, something entirely new and different -- but the common denominator is that the world is about to become much angrier and that should be factored into forward decisions at some level.

That likely means something different to each of us, beyond the obvious "family first" philosophy that we all share.  The trick to the trade -- and this is a biggie -- will be the ability to identify when to flip the switch from capital generation to wealth preservation.  

The simple and somewhat sad fact is that the world is as the world is while the stock market is near all-time highs, and much like December 2006, the most profitable pivot will only be obvious with the benefit of hindsight.

Random Thought:

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Todd Harrison: An Angry World Awaits the Other Side of All-Time Highs
The stock market dances on the head of a pin.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

The storyteller makes no choice, soon you will not hear his voice; his job is to shed light and not to master.
-- Grateful Dead

July 1st -- the halfway point of the calendar year. For all the hemming, hawing back-and-forth -- which included a near-death experience for the tech market -- the mainstay averages held their own, thank you very much: The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) notched 6% gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) edged 2% higher.

Wall Street is a bottom-line industry; at the end of the day, week, month, quarter, and year, one's value is determined by gains minus losses.  It's a pretty cut-and-dry world, even if the approaches and styles -- if not the entire DNA of the marketplace -- drastically shifted in the last decade.

Eat what you kill; you're only as good as your last trade; finance has always been Darwinian but perhaps, now, more than ever, it has become a matter of survival.  All the while, volatility -- once widely viewed as an index of fear -- is near all-time lows as the S&P trades at an all-time high.  On its face, times they are a-groovy.

Something is seething under the seemingly calm surface, however; we call it social mood, but it has many names. The devolution has been so pernicious and persistent that we've seemingly developed an ingrained defense mechanism against it, not unlike walking past a homeless man and pretending not to have loose change.

Plutocrats see it coming too, even if most prefer not to discuss or acknowledge it.  And signs surround anyone who is aware enough to pay attention. Porsche (OTCMKTS:POAHF) reports its best June sales ever this morning while more than one-quarter of Americans live in poverty.  It's a bifurcation we've been talking about for a decade -- the eradication of the middle class -- and no, this isn't a victory lap.

I used to discuss the difference between an economic recovery and a stock market rally and the chasm between perception and reality.  None of that mattered -- it was a waste of time and a waste of breath as the tape powered higher; any modicum of caution was costly to performance.  As a result, reward-chasing is back in vogue and risk management is considered a mug's game; it is the mirror image of March 2009.

We're in the midst of navigating our next steps as a company -- and yes, for me personally, as well.  We are having several discussions  -- a pivot back to Wall Street, an angle toward communications, an entertainment ancillary, something entirely new and different -- but the common denominator is that the world is about to become much angrier and that should be factored into forward decisions at some level.

That likely means something different to each of us, beyond the obvious "family first" philosophy that we all share.  The trick to the trade -- and this is a biggie -- will be the ability to identify when to flip the switch from capital generation to wealth preservation.  

The simple and somewhat sad fact is that the world is as the world is while the stock market is near all-time highs, and much like December 2006, the most profitable pivot will only be obvious with the benefit of hindsight.

Random Thought:

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

More From Todd Harrison
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Todd Harrison: An Angry World Awaits the Other Side of All-Time Highs
The stock market dances on the head of a pin.
Todd Harrison    

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO.

The storyteller makes no choice, soon you will not hear his voice; his job is to shed light and not to master.
-- Grateful Dead

July 1st -- the halfway point of the calendar year. For all the hemming, hawing back-and-forth -- which included a near-death experience for the tech market -- the mainstay averages held their own, thank you very much: The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) notched 6% gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) edged 2% higher.

Wall Street is a bottom-line industry; at the end of the day, week, month, quarter, and year, one's value is determined by gains minus losses.  It's a pretty cut-and-dry world, even if the approaches and styles -- if not the entire DNA of the marketplace -- drastically shifted in the last decade.

Eat what you kill; you're only as good as your last trade; finance has always been Darwinian but perhaps, now, more than ever, it has become a matter of survival.  All the while, volatility -- once widely viewed as an index of fear -- is near all-time lows as the S&P trades at an all-time high.  On its face, times they are a-groovy.

Something is seething under the seemingly calm surface, however; we call it social mood, but it has many names. The devolution has been so pernicious and persistent that we've seemingly developed an ingrained defense mechanism against it, not unlike walking past a homeless man and pretending not to have loose change.

Plutocrats see it coming too, even if most prefer not to discuss or acknowledge it.  And signs surround anyone who is aware enough to pay attention. Porsche (OTCMKTS:POAHF) reports its best June sales ever this morning while more than one-quarter of Americans live in poverty.  It's a bifurcation we've been talking about for a decade -- the eradication of the middle class -- and no, this isn't a victory lap.

I used to discuss the difference between an economic recovery and a stock market rally and the chasm between perception and reality.  None of that mattered -- it was a waste of time and a waste of breath as the tape powered higher; any modicum of caution was costly to performance.  As a result, reward-chasing is back in vogue and risk management is considered a mug's game; it is the mirror image of March 2009.

We're in the midst of navigating our next steps as a company -- and yes, for me personally, as well.  We are having several discussions  -- a pivot back to Wall Street, an angle toward communications, an entertainment ancillary, something entirely new and different -- but the common denominator is that the world is about to become much angrier and that should be factored into forward decisions at some level.

That likely means something different to each of us, beyond the obvious "family first" philosophy that we all share.  The trick to the trade -- and this is a biggie -- will be the ability to identify when to flip the switch from capital generation to wealth preservation.  

The simple and somewhat sad fact is that the world is as the world is while the stock market is near all-time highs, and much like December 2006, the most profitable pivot will only be obvious with the benefit of hindsight.

Random Thought:

R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

Follow Todd and over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time with a FREE 14 day trial to Buzz & Banter.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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