The 2013 Morning Dew
Observations from the morning front.
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
Good morning and welcome to the New Year and a fresh start in the City of Critters!
Despite spending the last week in bed fighting off an amalgamation of the ailments that everyone in my family accumulated over the last month, I'm still not 100%.
As such, I plan to work from home today -- and rest as I can -- and head back to the big city tomorrow for a series of meetings and interviews. I look forward to a big-time 2013 all the way around, and thank you in advance for sharing the journey with us.
A few items, in no particular order:
On Monday, I took some time to review our 2012 Ten Themes; some were wrong, some on point, and some unfortunately proved correct. I've recapped them here, if you have an interest in sneaking a peak.
I also scribed my annual list of "Things I've Learned," which thankfully grows in kind each year. That list is here and (quite hopefully) it is in no way comprehensive.
Looking forward not back -- 'cause that's how we roll in these parts -- the bulls have the tape by the horns the last few sessions. After the stock market dropped from S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1450 to S&P 1400 the last two weeks of December, it's poised to open today somewhere in the neighborhood of...yep, 1450.
That's 100 S&P handles in a month, if you traded it correctly, or death by 1,000 paper cuts, if you were a step slow.
Obviously, the next "Single Most Important Catalyst in the History of the Market" is a scant two weeks away, when politicians square off on whether to raise the debt ceiling (remember that?).
Along those lines -- and with a knowing nod to the devolution of social mood -- John Boehner told Harry Reid, "Go f--- yourself" outside the Oval Office yesterday, according to the Atlantic Wire.
There is fresh chatter that speculation abounds that Fitch may downgrade the US credit rating, citing a Dec. 19 report from Fitch warning that if any part of the fiscal cliff deal hits, the US would suffer a downgrade. I know the bulls aren't even thinking about any sorta pain in the near-term -- and this may or may not happen to begin with -- but it's worth seeing both sides whenever you trade risk.
For my part, I haven't done much with my pad into year-end 2012; I locked in a good year, took most of my money off the table, and held steady with a handful of situations (that have been yawners of late) and a smallish spate of S&P out-of-the-money February puts (which, in the round trip we've seen, have simply dripped time decay).
I'm not gonna chase, fade, or otherwise get in the way today, at least in the first hour or so as the expiration hangover subsides and emotions subside. I am looking forward to swinging the risk bat anew, but that doesn't mean I have to blast for the bleachers on the first pitch.
- As always, I hope this finds you well, and again -- Happy 2013!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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