Stocks Rally Into Resistance. Will They Hold Their Gains?
Crosscurrents abound as we fire up the Monday strut.
It has been an eventful stretch; with the Jewish holidays thinning last week's ranks, we saw a "false" Putin headline (Russia will back Syria with force, which was "old news," but triggered a 22-handle "drop and pop" in Friday's S&P (INDEXSP:.INX)); posturing from Syrian president Assad (who threatened "repercussions" if the US launches a strike); positive news in Asia (Japan rallied 2.5% on winning the 2020 Olympics; better-than-expected exports from China); and stateside M&A (Koch Industries bought Molex (NASDAQ:MOLX) for $7.2 billion).
Heck, even my Oakland Raiders found some heart and almost beat a solid Colts team behind Terrelle Pryor and a newfound read option. Hey, it's a start.
All the while, the S&P is trading at levels last seen in May, June, July, and August -- and while the tone and tenor is constructive on the margin, we're meandering below resistance (the definition of a churn) as we fire up this fresh five-session set. Running to stand still? Perhaps; individual equities have been all over the place; it's more a market of stocks than a stock market.
The perceived catalyst this week is whether or not we'll strike Syria, which has become a hot-button issue the world over. The first phase of the financial crisis -- and the policies that followed -- have dominated the global macroeconomic landscape for years and many of our partners are none too pleased. They seemingly have a platform to vote on the US with this pending military action, and many of them are taking the opportunity to do so.
Last week, we offered that the bears have a window of opportunity to knock down the market, perhaps all the way to the 200-day at S&P 1570 (it's an upward sloping average). That continues to be the case as we edge into this week's action, with the financials (watch Goldman (NYSE:GS)), momentum tech (Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD), Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)), gold (as a contra-tell), and market internals providing road signs along the way.
For my part, I'll be working from home today so I can pick the twins up off the bus (it's their first day of fourth grade and I'm told kids remember things like this) before heading into the concrete jungle for tonight's premiere of Money for Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve, which is an excellent (and most timely) documentary that should be required viewing for the future leaders of our nation.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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