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Random Thoughts: Can BlackBerry Catch Apple?

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The smartphone wars heat up with the launch of the BB10.

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Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

Smartphones are all the rage today with the release of the BlackBerry (NASDAQ:RIMM) BB10, and you have to appreciate the symmetry.

The "easy" trade we flagged in the fall was to buy the stock into the launch-which worked to the tune of 200%--and the easy trade the other way was to sell the news, as we posited Monday morning. The stock is now down 20% since we posted the latter article, so accept it for what it is-the ways and means of Wall Street.

A few random thoughts, if I may.

First, note the symmetry between the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) November top-tick at $700, which correlated perfectly-to the day!-with the RIMM bottom-tick at six and change.

Could it be a pure coincidence? Perhaps, but its nucking futz nonetheless.



The second-and sure to be unpopular-observation is the Head & Shoulders pattern in Apple, which "works" through a pure technical lens, to $360 (don't shoot the messenger). I'm not piling on after a 35% decline-I currently have no position-but we strive to see both sides in the 'Ville and now you do. (For a great read on Apple, read Jeff Cooper's vibes here.)



One final note: Once the traders get shaken out of RIMM (both ways), I believe the BB10 will continue to impress those who left the device for dead and it will claw back share, both on the enterprise and consumer side; in fact, one of the cooler features of the phone is the ability to toggle between personal and professional endeavors with a firewall separating the experiences, which is sure to excite the enterprise IT folks.

Expectations are obviously much higher now than where they were when the stock was at six, so keep some loose grips if you're playing with a longer-term horizon. That said, I've held this puppy and can honestly say that it looks and feels like an iPhone 29…with a better Web experience.

I'm close to the company-in full disclosure, MV has a relationship with it-but my opinion has never been, nor will ever be, for sale. If I didn't believe in the brand and, in this case, the operating system, I wouldn't risk my name or word and THAT is a true story. (Note: The same holds true for eSignal; I'm not just their spokesman, I'm a client!)

Random Thoughts
  • Hoofy and Boo chewed through The Bull-Bear Debate yesterday, lest you missed it. See both sides; always see both sides.
  • The trannies-or, transportation stocks-broke out of a consolidation pattern and popped 20% since mid-November. I bring this to your attention as they're showing some nascent signs of exhaustion. Keep half an eye peeled to the TRAN 5500 level per the chart below as that is the first tangible support (5% below current levels per the chart below).
  • S&P 1500 is too crowded for my liking; I prefer a pop (to S&P 1520?) before a drop.
  • The financials are mixed today but keep an eye on BKX (INDEXDJX:BKX) 53 as that's nice and tight support-or future resistance, if breached. As go the piggies, so goes the poke.
  • There's an emerging consensus that price action and fundamentals have become increasingly disconnected (thank you Uncle Sam!), which would explain the uptick in technical chatter across the trading and media universe. Personally, I believe our forward path will be dictated by the other two metrics: Structural and Psychology, and not necessarily in that order.
R.P.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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