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Random Thoughts: BlackBerry, Facebook, Gold, and Elliott Wave


Turnaround Tuesday arrives on cue.

Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.

It's a dark, dreary Turnaround Tuesday in the city of Gotham as traders strap into their turrets for the second act of our five-session set. The opening hue is pink (slightly red), but we know from experience that the first half hour of every session tends to be noisy and a truer tenor emerges at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

In an attempt to respect your time, some top-line vibes:
  • I was planning to punt the rest of my trading stock in BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) into the opening strength (and take a fresh look) but I was on a call in our conference room and emerged three minutes after the opening (and the stock already got hit). No biggie, as I sold 60% of the position into yesterday's hot-popper, and I'm not afraid to buy it lower.
  • I've got some Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) puts paired against that long exposure, so we'll see if that provides some downside relief. It's a pure trade with a buy-stop set above $29. As always, my risk will be updated in real-time on the Minyanville Buzz & Banter (click here for a free two-week trial!).
  • Per our Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) vibes on January 30, if the stock approaches our target of $360-which is also a kitten's whisker from a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up-thrust to $700-I plan to get involved in decent size for a trade. Circle it Newton; you never know.
  • The banks are a mixed bag-they're an important tell-and until they break, the tape won't either. They've been one of the best market tells for those who watch stocks for a living, so keep them on your radar even if you're not involved.
  • I'm paying particular attention to Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Barclays (NYSE:BCS)-our overseas financial proxies-as they were both under pressure yesterday. The German banking giant is off 15% in the last month, for those who are looking for potential clues to the fuse.
  • Gold is bouncing today-commodity volatility typically precedes equity movement-and I don't see any technical resistance coming into play until $1650, per the chart below.
  • For the broader market, S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1535-1580 is our technical context. I'm trading more stocks and less market until such time that the top-end of that band tag approaches (and creates a defined risk-reward). If and when we get there, I plan to unleash the hounds (on the short side) for a trade.
  • Only five more days of Mercury Retrograde -- thankfully.
  • The Bachelor is the "other side" of Monday Night Football, or "payback" as my wife likes to say.
  • Good luck today-these are tough times we're chewing through, but remember, we have to go through it to get through it…and we're going through it now.

Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with BlackBerry.

Twitter: @todd_harrison

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Position in BBRY and FB.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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