Random Thoughts: BlackBerry, Facebook, Gold, and Elliott Wave
Turnaround Tuesday arrives on cue.
It's a dark, dreary Turnaround Tuesday in the city of Gotham as traders strap into their turrets for the second act of our five-session set. The opening hue is pink (slightly red), but we know from experience that the first half hour of every session tends to be noisy and a truer tenor emerges at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
In an attempt to respect your time, some top-line vibes:
- I was planning to punt the rest of my trading stock in BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) into the opening strength (and take a fresh look) but I was on a call in our conference room and emerged three minutes after the opening (and the stock already got hit). No biggie, as I sold 60% of the position into yesterday's hot-popper, and I'm not afraid to buy it lower.
- Much like the stock ran into the BB10 January 30 launch (we were on this one early)—and yes, we flagged it at $18 for the potential to sell the news—we could see a similar dynamic unfold into the US release of the phone on March 22. Be that as it may, trades are meant to be taken in hit-it-to-quit-it mode.
- I've got some Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) puts paired against that long exposure, so we'll see if that provides some downside relief. It's a pure trade with a buy-stop set above $29. As always, my risk will be updated in real-time on the Minyanville Buzz & Banter (click here for a free two-week trial!).
- Per our Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) vibes on January 30, if the stock approaches our target of $360—which is also a kitten's whisker from a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the up-thrust to $700—I plan to get involved in decent size for a trade. Circle it Newton; you never know.
The banks are a mixed bag—they're an important tell—and until they break, the tape won't either. They've been one of the best market tells for those who watch stocks for a living, so keep them on your radar even if you're not involved.
- I’m paying particular attention to Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) and Barclays (NYSE:BCS)—our overseas financial proxies—as they were both under pressure yesterday. The German banking giant is off 15% in the last month, for those who are looking for potential clues to the fuse.
- Gold is bouncing today—commodity volatility typically precedes equity movement—and I don't see any technical resistance coming into play until $1650, per the chart below.
- For the broader market, S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1535-1580 is our technical context. I’m trading more stocks and less market until such time that the top-end of that band tag approaches (and creates a defined risk-reward). If and when we get there, I plan to unleash the hounds (on the short side) for a trade.
- I'm pretty jazzed that Elliott Wave has joined the Minyanville family; this chart (from over on the Buzz) speaks volumes! For those who wanna hear the latest and greatest from the man himself—Robert Prechter—we'll be hosting a FREE webcast today at 4:15 p.m. EDT. You can sign up here, and the password is "socio." I will also be speaking at The Social Mood Conference in Atlanta on April 13, which promises to be enlightening.
Only five more days of Mercury Retrograde -- thankfully.
The Bachelor is the “other side” of Monday Night Football, or “payback” as my wife likes to say.
- Good luck today—these are tough times we’re chewing through, but remember, we have to go through it to get through it…and we’re going through it now.
Disclosure: Minyanville has a business relationship with BlackBerry.
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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