Todd Harrison: Positioning Into Year-End
The good, the bad, and the controversial!
Editor's Note: Todd posts his vibes in real time each day on our Buzz & Banter.
I juggle cats for a living; today I'm adding chainsaws and bowling balls to the mix as we're T-1 until Festivus!
We still have some room--not much, but some--so if you wanna celebrate the journey, help some kids, and network with the finest human capital in the financial universe, please visit www.rpfoundation.org to lock your spot.
Tape-wise? Oh yeah, that! I rounded up on my S&P February out-of-the-money puts this morning, with the final addition precisely where I bought--and sold--them earlier this week (my average cost is about a nickel higher).
I'm not sure if this is a speculative bet or a hedge; prolly a little bit of both. While I've taken the lion's share of my trading capital off the table into year-end (literally), I left some house money to see if I can turn it into money that will help pay for a house.
My longs? Cannabis plays, which I can't mention by name because 1) they're too thin and 2) they're literally lottery tickets as Altria (NYSE:MO) or Archer Daniels (NYSE:ADM) will likely bogart the space by the time the smoke
The net sum of those common stock positions is greater than the February downside premium I own so I'm technically long delta with positive gamma, but in reality, I own a thesis against the tape. In other words, I'm long weed and short speed for reasons already mentioned (higher tax revenue, more jobs, less crime, and no coverage (yet) on Wall Street).
In terms of trading tells, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is an obvious focus ($500—recent lows—is the level that must hold, if and when) although the tape did a nifty job of proving Newton wrong yesterday. Breadth is 3:2 negative (not yet a tell) and the banks--which held the market up yesterday--are mixed. BKX 47 is the level of lore in that arena.
What else? If you missed yesterday's conversation with Jeff Saut, you should give it a read; he's as good as it gets and he speaks to specific stocks he likes--American Tower (NYSE:AMT), SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC), DaVita (NYSE:DVA), and DexCom (NASDAQ:DXCM)--and sectors he's avoiding (consumer non-durables).
And yes, he'll be at Festivus, along with other "fan favorites" such as Peter Prudden, Michael Gayed, Barry Ritholtz, Peter Atwater, Mark Dow, Aaron Brown, Stephanie Pomboy, Ivan Zinn, Scott Redler, and Lloyd Khaner. Not that I'm a namedropper...
A'ight, lemme get this to you as I've got an Abyssinian spinning through the air.
Hey Crash, watch that chainsaw!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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