10 Things You Need to Know for Monday
Traders shake off the snow and get ready to go.
The East Coast, still awash in white, is doing its best to shake off the weather and focus on a fresh set of sessions. The effort in that regard is mixed; while NYC side-stepped the worst of the storm, Nemo found Long Island, Connecticut, and the better part of Massachusetts. It wasn't a total washout, but for some, a dig-out is still required.
Some top-line vines, in no particular order:
BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY) is lower this morning on talk of some corporate defections; again, the stock ran 200% since September into the BB10 launch, so some softness isn’t too shocking. Technical support resides around $12 (where it bounced post-launch after the "sell the news") and I'm a buyer if it gets there, all else being equal.
Last week, we offered Three Things the Bears Need to See, along with what Three Very Smart Bears Do Foresee (a stock slide). If you missed those articles, they’re worth five minutes of your time.
While the tape acts fabu—multi-year highs, a bullish breakout in tech, positive breadth, cats and dogs making love, you name it!—the "blow-off phase" to S&P (INDEXSP:.INX) 1520 or higher," as discussed last week, is and was a necessary precursor for a move lower.
- Per the breakout in the four-letter freaks above, the NDX (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) 2750-2760 zone has morphed into near-term resistance.
After carefully tapping the short side on Thursday (before covering up for a push) and Friday (pretty much the same result), I bit my lip into Friday’s close and put on some downside April paper in the S&P with a stop (above S&P 1520) as the index approached the technical target we touched on in December 2012.
- This is the first time since 1971 that the S&P has notched gains for the first six weeks of the year. With regard to my current positioning, I may again be early (again) or wrong (it happens), but you can do anything as long as you're disciplined.
Gold is $20 lower this morning, which reminds me of the axiom that "commodity volatility typically precedes equity movement."
Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) remains our favorite overseas financial proxy; it acted laggy the latter half of last week and remains a tell as we fire up a fresh five-session set. $47 is support, if and when, for the German banking giant.
- Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) remains in an interesting technical position; hold above $466 and the gap (from earnings) "works" to $512ish; should it break anew, a lopsided Head & Shoulders pattern "works" to $360 or so.
- AOL (NYSE:AOL) and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) ripped 10% and 20%, respectively, this past Friday on earnings. I hearken back to last March, when I met Jeff Weiner while Getting Social in Palo Alto and walked away supremely impressed. I traded—but didn't hold—the stock, which was in hindsight a mistake, but I can't embrace a stylistic approach when it works and blame it when it doesn't.
And No. 11, check this chart, courtesy of Jeff Cooper, which posted on the Buzz & Banter on Friday. If you can tell me whether this is, “Yikes, history repeating!” or “”There’s no such thing as a triple-top,” I’ll be able to look real smart as I cast my gaze across the investment horizon!
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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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