News & Views: Wednesday, September 3
What you need to know for today's trading day.
Europe Stocks Rise as Ukraine Cease-Fire Steps Discussed (Bloomberg)
Western Companies Appear to Push Back Against Chinese Crackdown (NYTimes)
Negative Rate Risk Returns as Krone Defense Grows (Bloomberg)
Australian PM Abbott doesn't rule out boots on ground in Iraq (Reuters)
Apple Denies iCloud Breach (WSJ)
The top event this morning is the potential cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia, announced by the Ukrainian government in Kiev. President Poroshenko announced that he and Putin had come to terms on a ceasefire, although the Russian government says they have only agreed to steps towards a peace because it is not involved in the fighting. Later, Ukraine retracted their statement of a ceasefire. Irregardless, global risk assets are rising - DAX, RUB, EUR, SP, both crudes - and the riskless - Bund, Treasury, dollar - are falling.
The US is getting more support from other global leaders for a ground attack in Syria following the beheading of a second journalist and a threat towards another British one. Now Australia and the UK are calling for "boots on the ground" in Syria and/or Iraq to go after the Islamic State. The US will most likely need a coalition to avoid any political hangups before they start sending in troops.
Yesterday there was 21.35bln of IG credit issuance alone, the largest day of the year, with 23 tranches by 13 different issuers. Most likely that is just the beginning of the pent up supply coming down the pipes.
Economic data, there was lots of that overnight - the full breakdown is below. The slight beat in Australian GDP was enough to boost the AUD substantially - showing the largest risk-adjusted return in major G-10 currencies overnight. However, the real reason behind the jump is the speech by RBA Governor Stevens in Adelaide. The speech was not dovish in any way shape or form, citing a near-trend economic growth in the first half of the year, and the reluctance by the RBA to foster too much financial risk and continue inflating house prices. That seems more like the central bank is closer to a rate hike than a cut, even though it has promised an extended period of interest rate stability.
Chinese services PMI beat solidly and helped spur local equities to further gains overnight, pushing the Hang Seng Index (HSI) up to new highs.
- China HSBC services PMI (Aug) up to 54.1, prior 50.0
- China non-manufacturin PMI (Aug) up to 54.4, prior 54.2
- Eurozone services PMI (Aug final) down to 53.1 vs 53.5 initial
- Eurozone retail sales MoM (Jul) down -0.4% vs -0.3% expected, prior 0.4%
- Australia GDP QoQ (2Q) up 0.5% vs 0.4% exp, prior 1.1%
-- YoY up 3.1% vs 3.0% exp, prior 3.5%
- Japan services PMI (Aug) down to 49.9, prior 50.4
- UK services PMI (Aug) up to 60.5 vs 58.5 exp, prior 59.1
US Economics (Time Zone: EDT)
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
09:45 ISM New York
10:00 Factory Orders (Jul) - expected 11.0%, prior 1.1%
2:00 Fed's Beige Book
5:00 Total Vehicle Sales (Aug) - expected16.60M, prior 16.40M
5:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales - exp 13.20M, prior 12.95M
11:00 Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
11:30 Treasury to sell 4-week bills
Toll Brothers (TOL)
H&R Block (HRB)
PVH Corp (PVH)
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