News & Views: Thursday, August 21
What you need to know for today's trading day.
Business growth slows in China and Europe, Russia sanctions still to bite (Reuters)
European Banks Expect Only 'Limited' Impact From Sanctions on Russia (NYTimes)
G20 edging towards deal on 'bail-in' bond cushion for banks (Reuters)
World's Biggest Wealth Fund Slows Emerging Market Investment (Bloomberg)
Carney Seen Holding Sway as BOE Dissenters Stray From Pack (Bloomberg)
The main event overnight, the preliminary August China HSBC manufacturing PMI, was significantly below expected at 50.3 (51.5 estimate). The slowdown in growth - the index is still above 50 - is mostly due to the significant decline in credit in July, which most likely affected the activity of raw materials based manufacturers. It was enough to take some wind out of the Hang Seng Index's (HSI) sails, the benchmark for foreign investment into China, was down 66bps overnight. However, it's more important to realize that this index's components are mostly financial and tech, which do not have broad exposure to industrials - the worst performers in the HSI last night.
Similarly, the two stalwarts of European growth - Germany and France - both fell below their prior month and were below expectations. Irregardless, even though this was another negative for Europe, the German DAX reversed quickly. There was no reason for the sudden jump in equities shortly thereafter the print - perhaps it was "bad news is good news" or the strength in the respective services PMIs. Oddly, Bunds were unmoved by the miss.
Keep an eye out for interview from the various Fed members at Jackson Hole on the two major financial news networks today - CNBC and Bloomberg. Already, Ester George (hawk, nonvoter) has been interviewed by Bloomberg and CNBC is scheduled to be on Bloomberg Radio at 9:30am ET. Another interview is from John Williams (dove, nonvoter) on CNBC at 11:30am ET. He formerly worked for Janet Yellen at the San Francisco Fed and is thought to be very close to her line of thinking. He is also in the dovish cohort with Yellen, Fischer, and Dudley so his opinions are worth paying attention to. The markets will be paying attention to the rhetoric to get a better sign of what "labor market slack" means, a phrase that is now being repeated ad nauseum by market participants and central bank officials alike.
- France manufacturing PMI (August prelim) down to 46.5 vs 47.8 expected, prior 47.8
- France services PMI up to 51.1 vs 50.2 exp, prior 50.4
- German manufacturing PMI down to 52.0 vs 51.5 exp, prior 52.4
- German services PMI down to 56.4 vs 55.5 exp, prior 56.7
- Eurozone manufacturing PMI down to 50.8 vs 51.3 exp, prior 51.8
- Eurozone services PMI down to 53.5 vs 53.7 exp, prior 54.2
- UK retail sales including autos MoM (July) up 0.1% vs 0.4% exp, prior 0.2%
- UK public finances up to 0.2B GBP vs -1.7B exp, prior 9.8B
- China HSBC manufacturing PMI (August prelim) down to 50.3 vs 51.5 exp, prior 51.7
US Economics (Time Zone: EST)
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims - 298k, exp. 303k, prior 311k
08:30 Continuing Claims - 2500k, exp 2520k, prior 2544k
09:45 US Manufacturing PMI (Aug prelim) - exp 55.7, prior 55.8
10:00 Philly Fed - exp 20.0, prior 23.9
10:00 Existing Home Sales - exp 5.02M, prior 5.04M
10:00 Leading Index - exp 0.6%, prior 0.3%
11:00 Fed to purchase $2.05b-$2.5b notes in 7 to 10-year range
Jackson Hole Fed symposium begins
Ross Stores (ROST)
Dollar Tree (DLTR)
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