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Jeff Saut: Is Caffeine Key to Trading This Slow Market?
Today is a key day for stocks given the recent trading range.
Jeff Saut    

This article was originally posted on the Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO+.

"The biggest seller on the NYSE today has been NoDoz!?"

-Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Securities

I have spent many a night with Art Cashin at Bobby Van's directly across from the NYSE. Artie should actually write a book because there are not many of us left!

The stories he tells are unrivaled in stock market folklore, and it will be sad if those tales are not recorded for future generations. The same experience happened to me in a limo ride a few months ago with legendary investor Ron Baron, eponymous captain of Baron Capital. Ron founded Baron Capital with $10 million in 1982 and his assets have grown to over $27 billion since then.

During that limo ride Ron said to me, "There are not many of us left!"

Of course, the "us" in question is me! Indeed, in the next 25 years, there will be very few of us who experienced the "crash" of 1987; so, Art, write a book! I was actually in Barron's magazine in September of 1987 suggesting that there was going to be a "waterfall decline." Of interest is that said "crash" commenced 64 months into the recovery in stock prices. Also of interest is that the 1929 recovery rally peaked at 64 months, the Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) peak took 65 months, and the NASDAQ 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) peaked at 64 months; so, the 64/65 month timing point historically seems significant, at least to me, although I am not expecting anything like a crash here. Yet, this month is month 64 from the "nominal bottom" of March 2009 and next month is month 65.

Yesterday, however, I received this note from one disgruntled advisor. "I read your weekly strategy reports almost every week. I found this morning's annoying. You said, 'a few weeks ago I turned more cautious on a near-term basis.'  Nonsense! You have been calling for a 10 to 12% pullback for at least 7 of 8 months. Have I been misinterpreting your comments for the last 7 or 8 months?"

My response was, "I have repeatedly said that coming into the year we were due for a 5 - 7% pullback in the first 3 months of the year based on the historical odds. And, that those same odds suggest we are due for a 10 - 12% drawn-down sometime this year. Whether we started it 3 weeks ago when we traveled into the 1950 - 1975 target zone, triggered by the April 15, 2014 upside reversal session at SPX (INDEXSP:.INX) 1816, is unknowable. So it is true, I have said there should be a 10 - 12% pullback sometime this year, but I have not been calling for it for the past 8 months and I do have the documentation to prove that."

Today is a big day for stocks given the consecutive "inside days" trading range. With the Ukraine rebels handing over the "black box," a breach of Monday's high or low price could foster a trading surge.
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  • 1
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
More From Jeff Saut
Jeff Saut: Is Caffeine Key to Trading This Slow Market?
Today is a key day for stocks given the recent trading range.
Jeff Saut    

This article was originally posted on the Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO+.

"The biggest seller on the NYSE today has been NoDoz!?"

-Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Securities

I have spent many a night with Art Cashin at Bobby Van's directly across from the NYSE. Artie should actually write a book because there are not many of us left!

The stories he tells are unrivaled in stock market folklore, and it will be sad if those tales are not recorded for future generations. The same experience happened to me in a limo ride a few months ago with legendary investor Ron Baron, eponymous captain of Baron Capital. Ron founded Baron Capital with $10 million in 1982 and his assets have grown to over $27 billion since then.

During that limo ride Ron said to me, "There are not many of us left!"

Of course, the "us" in question is me! Indeed, in the next 25 years, there will be very few of us who experienced the "crash" of 1987; so, Art, write a book! I was actually in Barron's magazine in September of 1987 suggesting that there was going to be a "waterfall decline." Of interest is that said "crash" commenced 64 months into the recovery in stock prices. Also of interest is that the 1929 recovery rally peaked at 64 months, the Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) peak took 65 months, and the NASDAQ 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) peaked at 64 months; so, the 64/65 month timing point historically seems significant, at least to me, although I am not expecting anything like a crash here. Yet, this month is month 64 from the "nominal bottom" of March 2009 and next month is month 65.

Yesterday, however, I received this note from one disgruntled advisor. "I read your weekly strategy reports almost every week. I found this morning's annoying. You said, 'a few weeks ago I turned more cautious on a near-term basis.'  Nonsense! You have been calling for a 10 to 12% pullback for at least 7 of 8 months. Have I been misinterpreting your comments for the last 7 or 8 months?"

My response was, "I have repeatedly said that coming into the year we were due for a 5 - 7% pullback in the first 3 months of the year based on the historical odds. And, that those same odds suggest we are due for a 10 - 12% drawn-down sometime this year. Whether we started it 3 weeks ago when we traveled into the 1950 - 1975 target zone, triggered by the April 15, 2014 upside reversal session at SPX (INDEXSP:.INX) 1816, is unknowable. So it is true, I have said there should be a 10 - 12% pullback sometime this year, but I have not been calling for it for the past 8 months and I do have the documentation to prove that."

Today is a big day for stocks given the consecutive "inside days" trading range. With the Ukraine rebels handing over the "black box," a breach of Monday's high or low price could foster a trading surge.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
More From Jeff Saut
Daily Recap
Jeff Saut: Is Caffeine Key to Trading This Slow Market?
Today is a key day for stocks given the recent trading range.
Jeff Saut    

This article was originally posted on the Buzz & Banter where subscribers can follow over 30 professional traders as they share their ideas in real time. Want access to the Buzz plus unlimited market commentary? Click here to learn more about MVPRO+.

"The biggest seller on the NYSE today has been NoDoz!?"

-Art Cashin, Director of Floor Operations at UBS Securities

I have spent many a night with Art Cashin at Bobby Van's directly across from the NYSE. Artie should actually write a book because there are not many of us left!

The stories he tells are unrivaled in stock market folklore, and it will be sad if those tales are not recorded for future generations. The same experience happened to me in a limo ride a few months ago with legendary investor Ron Baron, eponymous captain of Baron Capital. Ron founded Baron Capital with $10 million in 1982 and his assets have grown to over $27 billion since then.

During that limo ride Ron said to me, "There are not many of us left!"

Of course, the "us" in question is me! Indeed, in the next 25 years, there will be very few of us who experienced the "crash" of 1987; so, Art, write a book! I was actually in Barron's magazine in September of 1987 suggesting that there was going to be a "waterfall decline." Of interest is that said "crash" commenced 64 months into the recovery in stock prices. Also of interest is that the 1929 recovery rally peaked at 64 months, the Nikkei 225 (INDEXNIKKEI:NI225) peak took 65 months, and the NASDAQ 100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) peaked at 64 months; so, the 64/65 month timing point historically seems significant, at least to me, although I am not expecting anything like a crash here. Yet, this month is month 64 from the "nominal bottom" of March 2009 and next month is month 65.

Yesterday, however, I received this note from one disgruntled advisor. "I read your weekly strategy reports almost every week. I found this morning's annoying. You said, 'a few weeks ago I turned more cautious on a near-term basis.'  Nonsense! You have been calling for a 10 to 12% pullback for at least 7 of 8 months. Have I been misinterpreting your comments for the last 7 or 8 months?"

My response was, "I have repeatedly said that coming into the year we were due for a 5 - 7% pullback in the first 3 months of the year based on the historical odds. And, that those same odds suggest we are due for a 10 - 12% drawn-down sometime this year. Whether we started it 3 weeks ago when we traveled into the 1950 - 1975 target zone, triggered by the April 15, 2014 upside reversal session at SPX (INDEXSP:.INX) 1816, is unknowable. So it is true, I have said there should be a 10 - 12% pullback sometime this year, but I have not been calling for it for the past 8 months and I do have the documentation to prove that."

Today is a big day for stocks given the consecutive "inside days" trading range. With the Ukraine rebels handing over the "black box," a breach of Monday's high or low price could foster a trading surge.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
More From Jeff Saut
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