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How Does Apple Stock Perform Around New iPhone Releases?

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It's release day for Apple's iPhone 6, so let's look at price history around previous launches.

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Today, Apple (AAPL) releases the iPhone 6, and that means all around the world, folks have been waiting on line all night (in some cases for days) to get their hands on a product that can be conveniently ordered online.

I don't really get it -- but it's the reason I'm an Apple shareholder.

When Apple makes something, people care. Even people that hate Apple pay attention to what it's doing.

The stars are aligned for a big weekend. The phones are critically acclaimed, pre-orders were big, there's finally a big-screen option, and the media is getting the word out.

If there's a disappointment this weekend, it will be because of a shortage of the big-screen 6 Plus model. One ideal scenario for Monday is Apple disappointing this weekend because of a lack of supply. if the stock dips on that, it could present a great buying opportunity.

So let's take a quick look at how Apple stock tyipcally performs around iPhone releases. Just remember we are dealing with tiny sample sizes here so throw the idea of statistical significance out the window.

Apple has released seven generations of iPhones (not including today's). On the seven release days, the stock has risen four times, with an average return of +0.5%.

Apple has traded higher the day before the iPhone release 4 out of 7 times (it also did yesterday). In those cases, the stock fell twice and rose twice, but had an average return of +0.7% as the two up days were strong.

As for the day after the iPhone release, we've seen an average return of just +0.1%. But here's where it gets interesting. Of the four days when Apple has risen on iPhone release day, it has fallen the following day every time, with an average return of -1.0%.

And in the three cases when Apple has fallen on iPhone release day, we've seen an average return of +1.6%. However, that can almost entirely be accounted for by the 5.0% pop on 9/23/2013, the Monday after the iPhone 5S release, which was a monumental success.

Here's a table with the data (yellow = release day) -- enjoy!



Twitter: @MichaelComeau

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