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Dow Jones Transport Index Continues Its Rally, While Industrials Fail to Break Record High


Today's financial recap and tomorrow's financial outlook.

The Chinese State Council announced new fiscal stimulus measures earlier today to help expand domestic demand. The government will set up a railway development fund with 200 billion to 300 billion yuan in funding each year and deepen railway investment through sales of 150 billion yuan in railway construction bonds in 2014. In addition, the government will extend preferential tax policy to more small companies. Lastly, China Development Bank will set up an organization to sell specialized home financing bonds.

The ADP private payrolls report showed a net increase of 191,000 jobs in March. The prior month's report was revised up to show a net gain of 178,000 from 139,000. Today's ADP report is a decent barometer of what Friday's government payroll report may bring. US Treasuries sold off in response to the report as market participants began to prepare for an overall stronger report on Friday. The 10-year yield rose 5.3 basis points to 2.80%.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (INDEXDJX:DJT) continued its rally from yesterday, making a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:DJI) continued its rally, but failed to break to a new all-time high. In order to confirm Dow theory, the industrials will need to breach 16,588.25. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) made a new record high today led by gains in materials and industrials stocks. Utilities and large-cap tech stocks were notable laggards in today's session after having led the market for the past four days.

MannKind (NASDAQ:MNKD) was up 75.62% today at $7.06 after the US FDA's Endocrinologic and Metabolic Drugs Advisory Committee voted to recommend the company's Afrezza inhaled-insulin treatment. However, the broader biotech universe was down on the day.

Tomorrow's Financial Outlook

The last two pieces of economic data relevant to Friday's jobs report will be released tomorrow: weekly initial jobless claims and March's ISM services index. The former is expected to rise to 319,000, back up toward its four-week moving average of 317,750. The latter, which accounts for about 45% of the US's annual GDP, is expected to show increasing growth up to an index reading of 53.5 from 51.6 in February. The other report scheduled for tomorrow morning is the February US trade balance.

The main event for US markets tomorrow will be the ECB rate decision at 7:45 a.m. EDT, followed by President Mario Draghi's press conference at 8:30 a.m. Because of continued deceleration in European price growth, market participants have guessed that the central bank will take steps to ease deflationary pressures, which may include measures that would lower the currency's exchange rate. However, a news story today, citing ECB sources, said that there was no consensus among the central bank's Governing Council to take any policy steps tomorrow.

Also scheduled to be released tomorrow are March services PMIs from China, the UK, and the eurozone. Additionally, February Australia and eurozone retail sales will be reported.

The only notable earnings report scheduled for tomorrow is Micron Tech (NASDAQ:MU).

Twitter: @Minyanville

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