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FedEx, UPS, Transportation Stocks Strong, but Resistance Looms

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All good rallies require consolidation at some point. And looking overhead, it appears that the transports may get one sooner rather than later.

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Over the past couple months, the Dow Jones Transportation Average (INDEXDJX:DJT) has been on fire. After testing its 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level multiple times last year, it pivoted and shot higher. Many transportation stocks have benefited and shown strength since. As well, the price action has helped propel the sector into a leadership role, pushing the markets higher.

That said, all good rallies require consolidation (i.e. a rest) at some point. And looking overhead, it appears that the transports may get one sooner rather than later.

Now this doesn't mean that transportation stocks are dead, or no longer investable (especially given their recent strength). Rather it points out that sector returns may be muted for a while if the index consolidates gains near resistance. And, as with any market, select stocks will outperform. After a rally of this nature, consolidation can last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks, but is usually healthy (as long as key technical levels are not breached).

Lastly, investors should also be on the lookout for a breakout higher. But note that a breakout would likely be much stronger after some consolidation. Any breakout over the next day or two would need to be monitored closely. Initial pokes into new territory after vertical runs can illicit pullbacks after a few days.

Below are charts of select transportation stocks and indices that I find of interest in the space, including FedEx (NYSE:FDX), United Postal Service (NYSE:UPS), Dow Jones US Airline Index (INDEXDJX:DJUSAR), and Delta Airlines (NYSE:DAL).

Dow Jones Transportation Average – Daily Chart

Broke out of a 2-year downtrend in December 2012. Now closing in on 2011 highs and lateral resistance. Monitor the 5600 level closely.



FedEx – Daily Chart

After bouncing off the 38.2 Fib yet again, FedEx pivoted higher (or rather rocketed higher) and now finds itself nearing key resistance. FDX is one of the key transportation stocks to monitor.


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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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