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Conviction Rewarded: Twitter Won the War


Twitter has silenced the doubters after a long fight.

Sean Udall is the author of the TechStrat Report, a tech focused newsletter. The following is a free sample. Take a free trial!

(TWTR) won the war. 

The marauding nay saying hoards are now running through the forest, seeking shelter in dank caves.

However, I'm going to give the enemy their fair due. The TWTR Bears have battled. They have dished out tremendous punishment.

I'm sure there have been times they thought they won the war. Some of them still believe that this is just a lost battle. But they are wrong. No matter what, they have tested the wills of the TWTR bulls.

But again, in my view, the war has been won. 

TWTR can now get on with the business of doing business and that might just be the most important aspect of this whole thing. It can focus 100% on the task at hand vs. dealing with the Wall Street/Stock Price/Dick Costolo "noise".

To the victor goes the spoils. And TWTR has yet to even start collecting the spoils in terms of monetizaton and price appreciation.

Now today, I could wax poetic about TWTR's potential to ascend to new all-time highs, but I'm seeing something else. And that's plenty of tradable/investable implications.

Yes, there will be more bumps along the way.

There will be pullbacks, negative analyst, errors in judgements, etc. But the coming dips are buyable in my view -- just the way the past ones have, even if they didn't feel good at the time.

In the short/intermediate term, the keys to Twitter (TWTR) lie in revenue and EBITDA growth. Just take a look at Page 8 and 10 in this link

Bottom line, conviction has been rewarded. The war has been won. TWTR is going higher. How much higher? Well that depends on holding period than anything else. 

But with TWTR, nothing has ever been easy and probably won't be going forward.

That said, there might be a big difference coming -- the coming pullbacks will likely be shallower than what TWTR's experienced in it's first year of trading.

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