Is the Yahoo Turnaround on Track?
One of the more interesting investment stories in the Internet space is the turnaround taking place at Yahoo.
On July 16, 2012, however, the company scored a major coup in poaching longtime Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) employee Marissa Mayer to be Yahoo's next CEO. Mayer joined Google in 1999 as employee number 20 and was largely responsible for the iconic look of Google's homepage. She also has been credited with overseeing the simple, clean, and user-friendly aesthetic of many of Google's other services.
She held key roles in Google Search, Google Images, Google News, Google Maps, Google Books, and Gmail. Prior to leaving for Yahoo, Mayer was Vice President of Local, Maps, and Location Services. Mayer is young at 37, and high energy. Many on Wall Street have applauded her hiring and Loeb was pleased.
In subsequent months, the stock also began to move. Over the last six months, shares are up better than 23%. During Mayer's short tenure, Yahoo closed the sale of part of the company's considerable stake in Chinese Internet company Alibaba Group Holding. The deal was originally reached in May prior to Mayer's hiring, but it closed in September 2012.
The asset had accounted for a large chunk of Yahoo's market cap, but was not a part of its core business and was not being fully valued in the stock price. As a result, shareholders had long been frustrated by the company's reluctance to monetize the stake, which was acquired in 2005 for $1 billion.
On September 18, Alibaba said that it had completed an initial repurchase of about half of Yahoo's 40% stake, netting Yahoo around $4.3 billion after taxes and fees. Mayer further pleased investors by going ahead with a previous plan to return around $3.65 billion of the proceeds to shareholders through buybacks.
At the time, Mayer said of the Alibaba deal, "This yields a substantial return for investors while retaining a meaningful amount of capital within the company to invest in future growth." Following the transaction, Yahoo retains a roughly 23% stake in the Chinese company with Alibaba retaining the right to repurchase half of Yahoo's remaining holdings.
The company also owns a 35% stake in Yahoo Japan, which it has been attempting to divest in recent years. An eventual sale could further unlock value in the stock. The first reports of a Yahoo Japan sale came in March 2011 when Reuters said that a $8 billion deal with SoftBank (TYO:9984) was being discussed. In October 2011, Reuters again reported that an imminent sale was likely, but it did not materialize.
In November of the same year, AllThingsD's Kara Swisher also suggested that a deal was in the works. Similar stories have cropped up with regularity ever since. The speculation has always been that the sale would be made to SoftBank, which already owns 42% of the business. In December, the Yahoo Japan stake was worth around $6.7 billion pre-tax or $4 billion after taxes and fees.
In any event, a divestiture of Yahoo Japan would further boost Mayer's reputation with investors, particularly if it is done in a tax advantageous way. One of the sticking points of a deal has always been how to structure it so that Yahoo isn't stuck with a massive tax bill. Currently, however, SoftBank is in the process of acquiring a 70% stake in Sprint (NYSE:S) for a whopping $20 billion and may not be interested in adding to its position in Yahoo Japan.
Under Mayer, Yahoo has been focusing its efforts on mobile and search. In unveiling her strategy to Wall Street, Mayer said Yahoo “has a unique set of content that we can provide our users," while noting that a strong mobile strategy will also drive more search.
Other sources have indicated that Yahoo's top brass want the company to become the "Google of content," by personalizing and tailoring the site to individual users. Whereas Google is the place to search for links, Yahoo's goal is to become the place people come for content. Mayer envisions a more personal user experience built around relevant content.
According to AllThingsD's Swisher, "that means more partnership deals from third-party sources, with an additional social component layer and synced across a number of devices and platforms, especially video." Mayer has said that she wants to make the site one of the "world's daily habits." For the time being, investors are pleased with the direction of the stock price and there are more catalysts on the horizon.
Given the ongoing turnaround at Yahoo, Wall Street was keenly interested in the company's fourth-quarter earnings results, which were released on Monday. Yahoo reported net income of $272.3 million or $0.23 per share, compared to $295.6 million or $0.24 per share, in last year's fourth quarter.
On an adjusted basis, which is comparable to analysts' consensus, Yahoo said that net income was $369.6 million or $0.32 per share, an increase versus the $306.7 million, or $0.25 per share, the company reported last year. This solidly beat Wall Street earnings per share expectations of $0.28.
Revenue in the quarter was up 2% to $1.35 billion from $1.32 billion in the year ago period. Revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs rose 4% to $1.22 billion compared to $1.17 billion last year. Analysts had consensus revenue estimates of $1.21 billion heading into the report. The year over year growth in revenue was a very welcome sign to investors who have grown weary of falling sales trends at the company.
Initially, the stock rose around 4% in after hours trading, but gave back its gains after Yahoo guided for first-quarter sales of $1.07 billion to $1.1 billion. This was less than the $1.12 billion that analysts had been expecting. On Tuesday, the stock closed the session down around 3% after gapping higher at the open. Overall, however, the uptrend in the name remains intact and it would finally appear that Yahoo's prospects are starting to brighten.
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