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Apple News Roundup: Could a Supply Shortage of the iPhone 5 Be Good for Investors?

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Apple will not be releasing an Apple TV this year.

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MINYANVILLE ORIGINAL Apple (AAPL) sent invites on Tuesday for a press event on September 12, where many believe that the launch date for the iPhone 5 will be announced.

High demand for the iPhone 5 may put strains on part suppliers, causing a shortage of the new smartphone. Some analysts predict that as many as 6 million to 10 million units will be sold around the time of the launch with Wall Street analysts expecting between 22 million and 23 million units to be sold during the quarter. Reports have been published showing that Sharp (SHCAY) may have fallen behind on its production of screens for the iPhone 5. The fears may be overblown, though, as similar worries surfaced when the new iPad launched earlier in the year.

Could the specter of a shortage help investors? Analyst Robert Chira from Evercore Partners (EVR) discovered that over the past three years, Apple's stock has performed 2.2 times better in a quarter when the company's management reported a supply constraint for the iPhone and 1.2 times better when the company's management reported a supply constraint for the iPad. In June 2010, both the iPhone and iPad supplies were constrained, and the stock value increased by 26% over the next three months. Comparatively, in October 2011, Apple reported no supply issues, and the stock saw 0% appreciation over the next three months. (See the article and graph here.)

Chira attributes this pattern to two reasons. Investors recognize that consumers will wait for the new supply of Apple products rather than buy an alternative device. Also, investors project how many iPhones or other Apple products could be sold once Apple fixes its supply problems. Chira expects iPhone sales to top 49 million units by December.

No Apple TV This Year

Bloomberg has reported that there will be no Apple TV launched this year. Apple has been unable to reach deals with cable companies about the control over the software that determines the screen interface. TiVo (TIVO) has also encountered similar problems with cable providers. Cable companies have also battled with Apple over whether or not an Apple TV set-top box should be sold directly to customers or leased through cable providers.

FBI Hacking Scandal

Yesterday Apple denied any involvement with the FBI hacking scandal that broke on Tuesday. The Anonymous-linked group AntiSec claimed that it hacked into a FBI-owned computer and stole a database, which contained 12 million unique ID numbers for iPhones and iPads around the world.

Apple stated that it did not help the FBI acquire the unique device identifiers for Apple devices (UDIDs). If the FBI did take the UDIDs, it did so without any knowledge from Apple. The FBI denies that it sought or has this data, which consists of 40-character strings of letters and numbers.

The new iPhone 5 is expected to ship with iOS 6 pre-installed, which will ban UDIDs.

Twitter: @ChrisWitrak
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