Gold and Silver Long-Term Technical Signals
Silver is very similar to gold in that it appears to have formed the beginning of a possible bottom.
Faithing and hoping to buy themselves time.
Me, I figure as each breath goes by,
I only own my mind.
-- "I Am Mine," Pearl Jam
I have been and remain bullish on gold, silver, and gold and silver stocks in the longer-term. However, the reasons why I believe gold and silver will perform well long-term are a bit different than what many economists and pundits are expecting.
I am a contrarian by nature. I generally try to do the opposite of the crowd in every situation I find myself in regardless of whether I am in a movie theater or trading options. Before getting into the gold and gold miners analysis, I thought I would explain my position. I do not consider myself an expert economist, but I try to read those who many consider to be experts to look for similarities in their viewpoints and expectations.
The same herd mentality that exists in financial markets exists among economists. Most economists in the mainstream media today tend to be Keynesians or neo-classical economists. Both viewpoints are generally accepted as the correct interpretation of economic and monetary policies by academia.
Very similar to political ideologies, economic ideologies are deeply rooted. Paul Krugman is a great example of Keynesian economist. Like it or not, the majority of economists believe his views are correct regardless of whether they are based on fact, history, or dare I say it, "common sense."
This leads me to the reason why precious metals, and commodities in general, may be approaching a major bottom and the potential for a monster rally. The reasoning stems from the fact that across the world, central bankers generally share the same views as Paul Krugman; they believe that the modern finance system does not need gold and that fiat currency is the answer even though history argues against this view.
Most economists and financial pundits believe that sovereign debt is going to bring down the economy and they may be correct. Many believe that the debt will unleash a massive deflationary spiral that will consume fiat valuations, specifically on risk assets and debt obligations.
I do not necessarily disagree that this is a likely outcome, but what concerns me is the number of people that believe this is true. This is the herd's idea and, as I have said many times before, the herd is rarely right. This time may be different, although it rarely is. For inquiring minds, I offer a rather different potentiality.
What if the debt crisis causes a totally different outcome that very few economists envision? What if they follow Dr. Krugman's ideas and create massive amounts of debt to stimulate the economy while printing vast quantities of money to prop up failing financial institutions? Clearly increasing debt levels and debasing the currency do not imply a long-term positive scenario.
Central banks do not have a strong track record when it comes to reducing liquidity or increasing liquidity at the appropriate times. Thus these actions are likely to facilitate some sort of crisis in the future whether it is a result of runaway deflation or inflation.
I believe that, should a deflationary crisis caused by massive debt levels and diminishing economic strength present itself, central bankers around the world will behave exactly the same way. They will act simultaneously; through dovish monetary policy, central bankers will flood the world with massive sums of currency with the intent to print away issues with a liquidity induced risk-on orgy.
Should that be their ultimate choice, risk assets will rally sharply higher initially. Paper assets like stocks will produce huge gains in a short period of time while supposedly safe assets such as Treasuries would likely arrive at negative interest rates across the yield curve in nominal terms.
The next phase is the scary part, and it is why I am bullish long term on precious metals specifically.
The devaluation of fiat currencies simultaneously around the world will result in a monster economic crash when the masses realize that most of the major worldwide currencies are becoming worth less and less. The resulting crash would be caused by the opposite force of runaway inflation, The herd mentality that anticipates a deflationary debt spiral espoused by most experts and pundits would be proven materially false.
Under those circumstances, precious metals will be the true safe haven.
Gold and silver will prove to be the true store of wealth that they have been for centuries. So many so-called experts fail to recognize that gold and silver are currencies. Yes, they have industrial uses, but gold and silver represent the last unequivocal bastion of wealth preservation.
Under the scenario where central bankers flood financial markets with currency, one would expect other essential commodities (such as oil) to also perform well. Furthermore, agricultural-based commodities would also flourish under those economic conditions. Investors would be in much better fiscal condition owning things that they could hold in their hands versus stocks or bonds.
I posit this potentiality not to say that this is exactly what is going to happen, but to challenge readers to open their minds. The crowd is usually wrong. The central bankers and most economists generally share the same viewpoints and their behavior is literally a giant group-think.
Is it possible that they are a herd that ultimately will be proven wrong? Will the herd mentality of economists and central bankers cause a massive currency crisis as they attempt to stem the tide of a deflationary debt crisis?
Regardless of which scenario occurs, precious metals will eventually be sought for their protection against the constant devaluation of fiat currencies by central banks around the world. For this reason, I remain a long-term precious metals bull.
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