Is Gold the Next Leader?
Gold is nearing another major relative support line. Could strength return just in time for a stock market correction?
I've talked about gold a few times here on Minyanville, making the case that over the past three years, the precious metal has served more as a deflation hedge than an inflation one. On every iteration of Quantitative Easing by the Fed, it has been stocks that have benefited the most. Much of this may be due to the idea that with every round of easing, the odds of company buybacks increase as corporate executives borrow to buy shares. Money has favored that which has had shrinking supply over a static one, providing stocks with a clear advantage there, given the incentives that low rates create.
Gold has been a major underperformer relative to stocks, making the pain trade in terms of opportunity cost quite high. Take a look below at the SPDR Gold Trust Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) relative to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). As a reminder, a rising price ratio means the numerator/GLD is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator/SPY.
Note that since the mid-November 2012 correction low, gold has far underperformed broad market equity averages. I have included two relative support lines to show that the first one was broken, and that we are now nearing the second. The trend is still down, but I suspect leadership can occur in the weeks ahead given the magnitude of underperformance.
This in turn would fit in with the deflation pulse/correction call I have argued for since the end of January (early yes, but jury still out if it's wrong). My firm's ATAC (Accelerated Time and Capital) models used for managing our mutual fund and separate accounts remain defensive, and we maintain that internals are not confirming absolute price excitement. If indeed a reconnect occurs, gold can outperform, and would likely do so just as the three-year ratio gets hit.
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.