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The Long Bond's Bottoming Attempt Stops a Little Short of Credulity

By

Take a look at today's action in currencies and commodities.

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The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Monday's big reaction among currencies after they tested their targets Friday does suggest that a durable extreme has printed. But that extreme (i.e., Friday's extreme) should still be retested.

Dollar Basket
Mar Contract DX; (NYSEARCA:UUP), (NYSEARCA:UDN)
Monday's open gapped up above Friday's range. It's not an island, but it does suggest that a bounce is underway to 79.85. Friday's test of the decline's 79.05 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable bottom.

Eurodollar
Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's open gapped down under Friday's range. It's not an island, but it does suggest that a pullback is underway to the rally's 1.3465-1.3475 prior target. Friday's test of the rally's 1.3635-1.3640 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable top.

Gold
Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Monday to probe briefly under 1665.00 support and then bouncing to test 1475.00 resistance, - still testing 1475.00 at the close, - failed again to signal that trending either way had resumed.

Silver
Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's gap down expended too much energy to extend down any further. Its reaction filled the gap back to Friday's 31.90 close without closing above it. The next trending attempt is likely to extend in that direction.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's gap up immediately rejected Friday's close under 142-26. Its reaction up probed above 143-18, but was still testing it into the close instead of recovering it. Buyers gained no traction for their effort.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The repeated testing of 97.00 support had held Friday, but Monday's open gapped down under it to test 96.00. Tuesday's open must reject this immediately by gapping up back above 97.00, or else a deeper dip to 94.20 is probably underway.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (NYSEARCA:UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
While waiting for the potential to trigger a buy signal above 3.36, Monday's dip retested the pullback's 3.25 target. The test held, but still no buy signal has triggered.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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