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The Long Bond's Bottoming Attempt Stops a Little Short of Credulity


Take a look at today's action in currencies and commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Monday's big reaction among currencies after they tested their targets Friday does suggest that a durable extreme has printed. But that extreme (i.e., Friday's extreme) should still be retested.

Dollar Basket
Monday's open gapped up above Friday's range. It's not an island, but it does suggest that a bounce is underway to 79.85. Friday's test of the decline's 79.05 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable bottom.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Monday's open gapped down under Friday's range. It's not an island, but it does suggest that a pullback is underway to the rally's 1.3465-1.3475 prior target. Friday's test of the rally's 1.3635-1.3640 target is likely to be repeated, and is capable of forming a durable top.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Gapping down Monday to probe briefly under 1665.00 support and then bouncing to test 1475.00 resistance, - still testing 1475.00 at the close, - failed again to signal that trending either way had resumed.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Monday's gap down expended too much energy to extend down any further. Its reaction filled the gap back to Friday's 31.90 close without closing above it. The next trending attempt is likely to extend in that direction.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Monday's gap up immediately rejected Friday's close under 142-26. Its reaction up probed above 143-18, but was still testing it into the close instead of recovering it. Buyers gained no traction for their effort.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
The repeated testing of 97.00 support had held Friday, but Monday's open gapped down under it to test 96.00. Tuesday's open must reject this immediately by gapping up back above 97.00, or else a deeper dip to 94.20 is probably underway.

Natural Gas
While waiting for the potential to trigger a buy signal above 3.36, Monday's dip retested the pullback's 3.25 target. The test held, but still no buy signal has triggered.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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