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Still a Little Soon for Gold Bottom, but Getting Closer


Take a look at today's action in currencies and commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's long-standing objective - to retest January 4's low opening gap - was finally satisfied Thursday. That was the attraction below. As for the force from above, it has yet to lapse. But the expectation for this to begin developing a bottom is still valid.

Dollar Basket
Two days of testing 80.05 support resolved up Thursday to test fresh highs at 80.70. But there is no indication of actual trending; - there was no trending intraday from open to close - so this may be the upper-end of the wide trading range I have been discussing here.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's gap down to prior lows, from two prior days holding 1.3465-1.3475 resistance, did not trend any further intraday. Despite its ostentatious beginning, this may be the lower-end to the wide trading range I have been discussing here.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
One or two blips down early Thursday teased the long outstanding 1637.40 objective, but were never credible for recovering. Ultimately, fresh lows probed under 1633.00, likely also to probe under 1628.00 before having potential to bottom.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The long-outstanding 30.25 target was fulfilled Thursday. Despite reacting off of it, its retest is likely down to the 30.00 area.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's opening recovery to 143-04 resistance later extended to 143-18 resistance on the 30-year auction results. Closing any higher Friday would start to signal at least a corrective bounce to 145-03, if not a bigger rally leg underway. But back under 143-04 would reject Thursday's bounce and launch what should then be an almost uninterrupted drop to 121-26.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's afternoon's late dip to 96.60-96.75 support left no time or room to tolerate further dip or delay in rallying. Thursday's open gapped up well above 97.00 to reject Wednesday's dip. The balance of the session chipped away at 97.80 resistance. Now Friday's open similarly should not delay extending higher.

Natural Gas
Mar Contract NG; (UNG), (NYSEARCA:UNL)
Repeatedly failing to trigger a rally leg above 3.33 had already made new lows likely, although a rally leg still could have triggered. Thursday's EIA report put an end to that, triggering a downleg to new lows testing 3.13 and likely headed to 3.00.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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