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Gold Is Running Out of Time to Glitter Again This Year


Friday offers one more opportunity for the yellow metal to launch a rally, but it must be obvious by the close.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's last plunge last week did hold support, but its recovery has become slow to materialize. Friday offers one more opportunity to launch a rally, but it must be obvious by the close.

Dollar Basket
Thursday's gap down to test 79.50 was recovered back into positive territory and extended to fresh highs above 79.79 that now target 80.20 so long as 79.69 holds as support.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The 1.3305 corrective bounce target was attacked Thursday before reacting down into negative territory under 1.3225. Closing any lower would launch a new downleg targeting 1.3080.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The recovery pattern should have produced a more substantial recovery above 1657.00 by now, instead of only ranging around 1660.00. Not extending up sharply early Friday - preferably closing above 1675.00 - would more likely attack 1652.00, if not also close under it to target fresh lows under 1635.00.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Thursday's late-morning surge to test 30.50 was unable to cleanly recover above the 30.25 prior highs. It must hold as support to maintain potential for extending the bounce up to 31.65.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Three days of ranging around the 147-12 corrective bounce limit resolved up Thursday while stocks fell sharply. The flight-to-quality attacked 148-16, and now a close back under 148-00 would target 147-00.

Crude Oil
Feb Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Fresh highs up to 91.44 Thursday were reversed back into negative territory. No second consecutive higher close means Wednesday's surge was not confirmed as launching a new upleg. Closing above Wednesday's 91.00-91.30 highs would restart the process and then require a second consecutive higher close the following day. Closing back under 89.30 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas
Thursday's gap down followed Wednesday's gap down, with neither gaining any traction for their efforts. This is essentially "ineffectual pessimism," and suggests the recent false starts have been chipping away at resistance to launch a rally. That said, I would only consider buying strength, and not weakness.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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