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Ending Gold's Corrective Bounce Forcibly Undermines the Fed's Determination


The ground gave way after Wednesday's close, as if markets only believed the Fed's intent while it was speaking

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Gold's corrective bounce targets were rejected forcibly overnight. More important is how quickly the ground gave way after Wednesday's close, as if markets only believed the Fed's intent while it was speaking.

Dollar Basket
The fresh low overnight reversed only slightly into positive territory Thursday, which is technically bullish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh low would be more credible, or else rallying immediately into the weekend.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
The fresh high overnight reversed only slightly into negative territory Thursday, which is technically bearish, but not decisive. Rejecting another fresh high would be more credible, or else sliding immediately into the weekend.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The overnight reaction down from Wednesday's test of the 1720.00-1725.00 bounce target had already broken under the 1713.00-1710.00 sell signal to eventually test 1691.00. A bounce to 1703.50 could be retested before the drop resumes to test 1685.00.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's attack on the 34.00 target was rejected more forcibly than Monday's breakout attempt, as Thursday's open gapped down to the 32.65 prior lows and extended lower to 32.30. The outperformance vs. gold is no longer evident.

30-Year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Thursday's gap down from 148-00 extended to within nine ticks of the 147-00 target before bouncing back into positive territory at 148-10. Closing in negative territory maintains the drop's momentum, regardless of the intraday bounce.

Crude Oil
Jan Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Thursday's gap down ranged around 86.50 throughout the day. Its break would resume the decline next targeting the 82.00 area.

Natural Gas
Thursday's fresh low again makes a buy signal impossible to trigger on Friday.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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