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Crude Oil's Limp Bounce Disappears, Taking Gold With It


Take a look at the intraday action in commodities.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The approaching weekend seems to be settling scores along the way, with gold finally breaking lower Thursday and crude oil retracing Wednesday's bounce. Will more of the recent moves be brought back in-line Friday, like the euro's bounce?

Dollar Basket
Gapping up Thursday rewarded Wednesday's buyers for defending 81.05 support. But that didn't prevent a lower low intraday, down to 81.00 support. Recovering both through the close now requires resuming the rally without delay to avoid a deeper drop.

Dec Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Thursday's open surged to a fresh high above 1.2800, which was retraced back under Wednesday's 1.2787 high. Back under 1.2750 would signal momentum reversing down, and the bounce is otherwise vulnerable to extending higher.

Dec Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Ranging around 1727.00 finally reacted down aggressively Thursday to 1704.50. Its reaction up to 1717.00 traded out the day ranging around 1714.50, whose break would confirm at least 1700.00 is in-play.

Dec Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
Wednesday's attack on 33.00 resistance reacted down sharply Thursday to test 32.25 support, which held. There is no active signal.

30-year Treasury
Dec Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Wednesday's bounce back to Tuesday's close had neutralized the gap's attraction. Not immediately dropping again Thursday allowed Wednesday's bounce to extend higher. It did, and it didn't. Fresh intraday highs peaked upon touching the 152-15 prior high, which itself fulfilled the rally's next higher target. But the rally should extend higher Friday if not reversing down by mid-morning.

Crude Oil
Dec Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Wednesday's bounce in reaction to the Gaza strike seemed only obligatory. Continued, if not escalated, violence did not prevent retracing it Thursday back down to the bounce's 84.70 origin. A fresh low should extend down to 81.85-82.50.

Natural Gas
Thursday morning's drop back under 3.70 did recover, all the way up to 3.83. The afternoon's drop back down to 3.70 did not. That's a lot of swinging intraday so the next trending attempt beyond Thursday's range should fail.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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