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Crude Oil's Open Thursday Might Trap Wednesday Afternoon's Sellers


Today crude oil dipped, while gold remained stuck at relevant support.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: Currencies all but confirmed a volatile narrow range. Crude oil and gold also confirmed a reluctance to rally against this backdrop. Crude dipped, while gold remained stuck at relevant support. Crude's dip could prove to be very bullish if at least its afternoon dip were rejected immediately at Thursday's open.

Dollar Basket
Wednesday's opening dip held 79.85 support for the second consecutive session. Its reaction up to 80.20 resistance avoided a negative close. There should be no further delay to extending higher to its 80.50 target, if that remains the pattern's intent.

Mar Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Wednesday morning's plunge back to recent lows attacking 1.3260 support was retraced back to unchanged, robbing the pattern of its momentum to probe either end of the 1.2360-1.3380 range.

Feb Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
The inability to rally above 1685.00 would be bearish, except that several days of probing above it haven't been rejected to launch a downleg. Back under 1675.00 would signal the rally had ended, putting into play 1637.40's retest. Otherwise, closing above 1693.50 should resume the rally, targeting 1720.00.

Mar Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The 32.50 target was met to within $.02 Wednesday. An intraday reaction down into negative territory was recovered to suggest the rally's momentum remains intact, and is next targeting 32.90 or even 33.50 so long as pullbacks now hold 31.65 as support.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Testing and holding 146-00 "higher prior lows" Tuesday and also filling the gap back to 146-04 didn't prevent fresh highs Wednesday morning up to 146-12. But it it didn't help to prevent a dip back into negative territory at 145-26. Now almost any further dip under 145-28 would be likely to extend down to fresh lows targeting 144-16.

Crude Oil
Mar Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Despite possibly having resumed the rally Tuesday, Wednesday's gap down extended lower to probe the 95.70 pullback limit. Rejecting at least the afternoon's portion of the dip by recovering immediately above 95.90 Thursday would all but assure extending higher without delay to test 99.00. There is otherwise room for dipping further to 94.65.

Natural Gas
Tuesday's ranging around 3.57 narrowed Wednesday, without extending higher. Last week's hesitation at 3.44 was similar, and resolved up. This week's similar setup should resolve down, targeting 3.20-3.25.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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