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The Euro May Fall Hard if a Recovery Is Delayed Any Further


Thursday's dip suggests the decline has resumed.

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The euro had immediately tested its bounce limit Wednesday without extending higher, so Thursday's dip suggests the decline has resumed.

Dollar Basket
Ranging sideways Thursday (since Wednesday actually) suggests that the trending attempt will be false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction.

Jun Contract EC; (NYSEARCA:FXE)
Having held the 1.2955 bounce limit Wednesday, Thursday's gap down is presumed to be resuming the decline. One more blip-up to 1.2955 can't yet be discounted.

Apr Contract GC; (NYSEARCA:GLD)
Wednesday's pullback from the 1615.00 target never extended under a relevant level to suggest that momentum might be reversing down. Instead, Thursday's quick recovery spent the balance of the session ranging around 1615.00, but yet extending higher or being rejected.

May Contract SI; (NYSEARCA:SLV)
The recent dip to 28.65 support helped to confirm a bottom was forming. Thursday's sharp rally to immediately probe above the 29.10 buy signal spent the session hovering just above it. A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm, so long as pullbacks hold above 29.10.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (NYSEARCA:TLT)
Despite gapping down Wednesday, another gap down Thursday was required if the trend was actually reversing down. Instead, the session traded calmly around Wednesday's range.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (NYSEARCA:USO)
Having stopped short of 54.00, Wednesday's recovery attempt was underwhelming, but left the door open to an overwhelming rally Thursday. Instead, recent tests of the 91.90 pullback limit was repeated. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum has reversed down.

Natural Gas
Wednesday's shallow optimistic dip resolved up Thursday to test the 4.00 target, then reacted back down to Wednesday's lows under 3.90. Any lower close would have -- and still could -- signal a bigger drop underway, confirmed under 3.85.

Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.
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