Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Support Still Not Broken in Silver and Gold


Again we're left with potentially different patterns in these metals.

Once again, we are left with potentially different patterns in gold and silver. So, it leaves me with watching support and resistance as my primary guide.

The main problem in silver, from an Elliott Wave perspective, is that there is no solid impulsive 5 wave internal structure in the Mini Silver Futures Contract, so it can lend itself to multiple counts, including just completing 5 waves down off the highs, a i-ii, (i) (ii) set up and about to start a wave (iii) of iii down, or even the start of an ending diagonal for this 5th wave down.  So, when we have a chart with less clarity, it will make me gravitate towards the chart with more clarity.

As far as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD), the best potential I see is that we have either completed wave (ii) or still have one more push higher towards the 126.50-127 region in a c-wave before wave (ii) has topped. This makes the long side of this market extremely dangerous, as long as we remain below 127.

But, take note that even after GLD dropped strongly this past week, it stopped exactly at the 123.60 level, which was the top of our support region of 123-123.60. This is the region we must see break with strong selling volume to confirm a wave (iii) down towards the 2013 lows, and ultimately to be on our way to the 100 region and potentially even lower into the 90s.

Furthermore, this region represented the .382 extension down in an impulsive structure, which is the minimum level I needed to see for a wave (i) down.  Normally, I would have preferred to see the .618 extension targeted for this wave (i) down, but breaking the 123 support on the first attempt would probably have elicited much more selling, so the .382 extension for wave (i) probably makes more sense.

So, at this time, my guideposts will be the 123 level as support, which, if broken with strong selling volume, will have me targeting the 113-115 region next for wave (iii) of III down, along with 127 as resistance if this is indeed wave (ii). However, if the market has other intentions, it will probably let us know so by moving through the 127 level, which would signal to me that wave ii has not yet been completed, and we may still attempt to target the 129 region for a larger wave ii.  And, if the market is able to move through 129 with strong volume, then that would be an initial signal to me that the alternative count taking us to the 140 region may very well be in play.  But, again, this alternative is my least favorite perspective in this current set up.

See chart illustrating wave counts on gold and silver here.

Editor's note: Avi Gilburt is author of, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition.  His Elliott Wave analysis appears frequently on several financial news sites.

Read more:

< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Featured Videos