Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Precious Metals Decouple From Stock Market

By

What is the correlation between gold stocks and the equity market?

PrintPRINT
At the end of July, my firm wrote an article examining the relationship between gold stocks and general equities. We sought to understand the huge variance in performance between the two markets. Sometimes they trended higher together. Sometimes the gold stocks surged while conventional equities fell into a bear market. Both markets have endured bad bears at the same time. Is there any rhyme or reason why there is such variation?

Here was our conclusion:
What can history tell us going forward? The key is the correlation. If gold stocks are trending higher with the equity market into a potential recession and bear market, then the gold stocks would remain positively correlated over the intermediate term. However, we can see that if the gold stocks are in a cyclical bear while the broad market is nearing a trend reversal or while the economy is nearing recession, then the gold stocks will remain negatively correlated. This is evident in three of the four previous examples.

Interestingly, two of those instances occurred during the second half of the 1960-1980 bull market. The equity market (Dow) is in blue while the Barron's Gold Mining Index (BGMI) is in red.



Previously we referred to the decoupling as two separate points, but in reality, the decoupling began in 1972 and lasted into early 1978. The above chart shows how the BGMI surged right as the DOW entered a cyclical bear market. When the DOW bottomed, the BGMI peaked.



Note how the BGMI bottomed in late 1976, just as the DOW's recovery petered out. The decoupling didn't end until early 1978.

Although no one (to my knowledge) has publicly discussed the current decoupling, it is clear and obvious for all to see. This decoupling began at the end of July 2011. Since the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) peaked, it is down 32% while the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) is up 25%. (Silver is down 32% and gold is down 14%). Also, the S&P is closing in a five-year high while GDX is soon to retest a multi-year low.



Going forward, we have the setup for an amazing contrarian opportunity. The trigger is an exacerbation in economic data and the general markets. As long as the markets are trending higher, then gold and gold stocks won't get much of a bid. However, once markets lose momentum and the threat of increased policy becomes apparent, we will see precious metals confirm their bottom and resume their still fledgling cyclical bull. Now is the time to be vigilant but patient as these markets prepare to test their lows. Once these markets test their lows and flush out the weak bugs then that is the time to be a vulture. Speculators and investors are advised to carefully seek out the large or small companies which are poised for the best rebounds.

Good luck!

Editor's Note: See more from Jordan Roy-Byrne at The Daily Gold.
< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

PrintPRINT

Busy? Subscribe to our free newsletter!

Submit
 

WHAT'S POPULAR IN THE VILLE